КИТАЙ: Как Фабрика Мира становится Финансовым Центром? | Инвест ГРОГ с Солодиным

Summary

Dmitry Solodin argues that China is systematically transforming from the world's factory into a selective, production-oriented financial center, driven by huge current account surpluses and low onshore funding costs. However, because China refuses full capital account liberalization to protect its fragile domestic financial system, it will not replace Wall Street but will create a parallel offshore liquidity system centered on Hong Kong. He keeps his core portfolio in US equities while gradually building small, selective China exposure through Hong Kong-listed stocks and the Hang Seng index.

• China’s giant current account surplus and ultra-low interest rates are turning it into a cheap funding hub for global industry.
• A new offshore financial system is being built through Hong Kong, panda bonds, and tools like FMA RMB Repo, bypassing US-centric channels.
• Full liberalization of the capital account is blocked by massive hidden local government debts and weak bank profitability, preventing the yuan from becoming a true reserve currency.
• China’s financialization will likely re-rate its equity markets over decades, leading Solodin to start accumulating Hong Kong-traded Chinese names.
• He explicitly names Tencent (TНEN) and a Hang Seng index fund as current long positions, while watching Chinese state banks.
• Among BNPL stocks, he is bullish on Sezzle and Affirm due to strong cash flows, and bearish on Klarna due to weak margins.
• US equities remain his largest allocation because the American financial center retains unrivalled liquidity and legal predictability.