T Rowe. Price's Sebastien Page on the 3 key trends facing the markets
Speakers
Sebastien Page
— CIO & Head of Global Multi-Asset, T. Rowe Price
Summary
Sebastien Page, T. Rowe Price's head of global multi-asset, discusses three key market trends: AI momentum with huge capex and demand, inflation risks that he thinks are underpriced, and how his team is hedging that risk with metals, mining stocks, TIPS, and cash while staying short duration. He remains bullish on AI in the near term as adopters only begin to see cost and margin benefits.
- AI capex cycle expected at $3 trillion over the next three years, with rotating supply-chain bottlenecks creating stock-picking opportunities
- ChatGPT has reached 1 billion users and enterprise cloud demand is going vertical
- Inflation running at 3.5% CPI, while market swaps price below 2% next year
- Lagged effects from food, freight, and energy costs will sustain inflation pressure
- Portfolio hedged via long metals/mining stocks, TIPS, cash, and direct hedged equity strategies
- Short duration, preferring cash over long-term bonds due to upward rate pressure
- Fed expected to stay on hold for the next six months, with modest tightening from higher long-end rates
- AI adopters only starting to see margin and cost-cutting benefits
Ideas
AI theme bullish next 6-12 months.
Strong conviction on the AI theme for the next 6-12 months. The AI capex cycle is expected to be $3 trillion over the next three years, supported by tremendous end-demand: ChatGPT at 1 billion users, cloud and enterprise adoption going vertical. Rotating bottlenecks in the AI supply chain (cooling equipment, back-end equipment, process controls, chip assembly) create opportunities for skilled stock pickers. Adopters are only starting to see margin benefits and cost cutting.
Inflation underpriced, hedge with metals, TIPS.
Inflation is running at 3.5% CPI while swap markets price one-year-ahead inflation at 2% or below, indicating the market is underpricing inflation risk. Lagged effects from food (fertilizer costs), freight costs, and energy will feed into broader inflation in coming months. To hedge, they are long metals stocks, mining stocks, TIPS, and cash. They also note Treasuries are not a perfect hedge in an inflation shock and are short duration, preferring cash over longer-term bonds.
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This CNBC video, published July 17, 2026, features Sebastien Page discussing AIQ, XLB. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Sebastien Page · Tickers: AIQ, XLB