Ideas
Homebuilders ETF faces housing downturn disconnect.
Housing is entering a significant bear market with permits down more than 20%, terrible affordability, aging boomers selling homes, and likely pressure on existing home prices, yet the homebuilders ETF is near all-time highs, a potentially important disconnect to watch.
Silver breakout can outperform gold.
Silver has broken out above $40 and historically lags gold in major bull markets before outperforming; with a coiled-spring setup and precious metals momentum, he thinks it has further to go.
Gold has further upside on central banks.
Gold has broken out decisively and can keep running because central banks are buying it as their reserve asset of choice instead of Treasuries, the Trump administration wants a weaker dollar and lower rates, and there is potential for a dramatic official revaluation of gold. He remains bullish on further upside.
Gold miners extended; trim 20-30%.
Gold miners have had enormous, under-covered gains and still have operating leverage if gold revalues much higher, but the charts are very extended and the gold miners bullish percentage index has historically preceded sharp corrections. He advises taking 20-30% profits while retaining long-term exposure.
Silver miners, First Majestic look favorable.
For investors who want to stay involved in silver, he likes silver miners as a leveraged play; First Majestic is one of his favorites and looks good technically.
Commodities benefit from weak dollar liquidity.
The commodity complex is attempting a breakout, and broad commodities are attractive because global liquidity remains positive, the administration wants a weaker dollar and lower rates, supply is constricted, and hard assets should benefit from fiscal and monetary inflation.
Copper has low supply, rising demand.
Copper is worth a look after a hard correction; supply is low and the broader commodity complex faces constricted supplies with rapidly increasing demand.
Uranium supply-demand supports renewed rally.
Uranium has an even tighter supply/demand setup than other commodities; he previously advised buying back into the uranium ETF after it was hit this summer, and it is now running again.
Oil, gas are AI-energy opportunities.
Oil and natural gas are out of favor and cheap, with oil around US production cost and natural gas far below European prices, while the AI boom is extremely energy intensive. He sees energy as one of the great opportunities.
Platinum supply-demand setup remains attractive.
Platinum has a very attractive supply-demand setup after rising 36% from his earlier recommendation, although he would not chase it aggressively; miners typically lag the metal and then take off.
Buy Valterra platinum miner AGPY.
Valterra is a leading platinum miner and can be bought under the ticker AGPY; he thinks it has tremendous upside because platinum miners lag the metal and then take off, providing operating leverage.
Avoid long-term Treasuries; rent rallies.
Long-term Treasuries are not a good hedge or long-term holding because fiscal dominance and rising long-end yields are a global problem; any bond rally should be rented, not owned, and investors should avoid relying on the traditional 60/40 long-bond allocation.
Avoid stretched US momentum and Magnificent 7.
Magnificent 7 do not provide a defensive hedge, and US momentum stocks are at off-the-charts valuations amid speculative excess and lots of greed; he advises harvesting gains and holding cash rather than relying on expensive US stocks.
Dollar is in structural downtrend.
The dollar index has broken important long-term support and looks to be in a structural downtrend; it is overvalued and the administration wants it significantly lower, so he wants assets that benefit from a weaker dollar.
Emerging markets benefit from weaker dollar.
A weaker dollar and strong global liquidity should favor international and emerging markets, which have started to outperform the US and are not the assets that led over the last decade.
Brazil is cheap top-performing market.
Brazil is the top-performing major market in US dollar terms this year, up about 33%, yet it still trades at only about eight to nine times earnings, making it a cheap weak-dollar beneficiary.
EDD yields 9%, breaking out.
The Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund (EDD) yields about 9%, is breaking out above prior resistance, and offers exposure to high-yielding Brazilian bonds with roughly a 9% real return.
Steeper curve favors mortgage REITs and AGNC.
The yield curve should continue steepening, which benefits mortgage REITs; AGNC is his favorite individual play, yields about 14%, and tends to raise its dividend, so it could pay more over the next two to three years.
Enterprise Products offers high safe yield.
Enterprise Products is a favorite midstream energy yield play yielding about 7.5%, raising distributions almost every quarter/year, trading at only about 11x earnings, and likely to beat the stock market over the decade.
Hold T-bills as dry powder.
The short end of the Treasury curve should be fine and cash is useful dry powder because the market often hits an air pocket; even if T-bill yields fall toward 1-2%, cash preserves capital and optionality.
This The David Lin Report video, published September 08, 2025,
features David Hay
discussing XHB, SILVER, GLD, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, DBC, COPPER, URA, WTI, UNG, XLE, PPLT, AGPPY, TLT, MAGS, US momentum stocks, DXY, EEM, EWZ, EDD, MORT, AGNC, AMLP, EPD, BIL.
20 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
David Hay
· Tickers:
XHB,
SILVER,
GLD,
GDX,
GDXJ,
SIL,
DBC,
COPPER,
URA,
WTI,
UNG,
XLE,
PPLT,
AGPPY,
TLT,
MAGS,
US momentum stocks,
DXY,
EEM,
EWZ,
EDD,
MORT,
AGNC,
AMLP,
EPD,
BIL
