Ideas
Dan Niles
Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management
9:04
Oil likely stays high into midterms
Niles expects oil to stay elevated at least until the US midterm elections because the Hormuz Strait issue may persist and Iran can keep the issue alive. High oil and gasoline prices feed inflation and hurt the incumbent party, making sustained high oil prices likely.
Dan Niles
Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management
10:39
Long-term yields keep rising, avoid bonds
Niles sees long-term Treasury yields continuing to rise. He highlights soaring government debt, US deficits around 6% of GDP, debt near $40T versus GDP near $33T, multi-decade high yields in Japan and the UK, and competition for long-end funding from AI companies and governments. This makes bonds unattractive amid a bond selloff.
Dan Niles
Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management
14:25
Midterm-year drawdown risk pressures US stocks
Niles is cautious on US equities into the midterm elections. He cites 1990-2025 data showing average peak-to-trough drawdowns of about 10% from late July to early November in midterm years, double the roughly 5% in non-midterm years. Combined with Fed rate-hike risk, elevated oil, fiscal deficits, and a bond selloff, he expects a double-normal drawdown and says the safe choice is cash.
Dan Niles
Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management
15:35
AI growth intact despite healthy correction
Niles remains constructive on the AI trade beyond the near-term correction. He notes token costs fell over 50% but token volumes rose more than 2.5x, hyperscaler cloud growth accelerated to 43% with better margins, and Anthropic became profitable. He believes the AI bubble peak is years away and says agentic AI is only about seven months old, so at least another year of solid growth is likely.
Dan Niles
Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management
19:44
Google is a top AI winner
Niles views Google as a leading AI winner. He says Google can compete on low-cost token generation with Gemini Flash, and that Apple licensing Gemini for the iPhone reinforces its ecosystem and AI leadership. He calls Google the best AI company in the context of the Apple deal.
Dan Niles
Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management
21:13
China semis rise, Korea HBM challenged
Niles believes China will secure its own semiconductor supply, including HBM, because it is a national-security priority. He notes China can raise capital through listed CXMT and soon-to-list YMTC and has enough domestic demand to absorb roughly 20% of global PC and smartphone output. He says China can challenge Korea's HBM lead even without cutting-edge technology, a competitive risk to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
Dan Niles
Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management
21:13
China semis rise, Korea HBM challenged
Niles believes China will secure its own semiconductor supply, including HBM, because it is a national-security priority. He notes China can raise capital through listed CXMT and soon-to-list YMTC and has enough domestic demand to absorb roughly 20% of global PC and smartphone output. He says China can challenge Korea's HBM lead even without cutting-edge technology, a competitive risk to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
Dan Niles
Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management
22:53
Apple AI strategy enables upgrade cycle
Niles is positive on Apple's capital-light AI strategy. Rather than spending hundreds of billions on capex, Apple is using Google/Gemini, preserving cash flow. He also sees a large upgrade cycle ahead as the beta expands globally, localized versions roll out, and the product line improves, supported by Apple's sticky ecosystem.
Dan Niles
Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management
27:01
Broadcom earnings miss risks stock decline
Niles says Broadcom's post-close earnings missed expectations and, unless the conference call changes the narrative, the stock is likely to fall. He treats this as a near-term downside risk.
Dan Niles
Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management
27:27
Cash safest amid stock and bond selloff
Given the risk of a double-normal equity drawdown and a simultaneous bond selloff, Niles says the safest choice is holding cash and money market funds rather than stocks or bonds.
This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published September 13, 2026,
features Dan Niles
discussing WTI, TLT, SPY, AI-SECTOR, GOOGL, 000660.KS, 005930.KS, CXMT, AAPL, AVGO, Cash and money market funds.
10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Dan Niles
· Tickers:
WTI,
TLT,
SPY,
AI-SECTOR,
GOOGL,
000660.KS,
005930.KS,
CXMT,
AAPL,
AVGO,
Cash and money market funds
