Our Super Bowl Ad, The Age of Orchestration, Walmart hits $1T, SaaSpocalpyse, Ken is Sick of Griftin

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 04, 2026 at 22:56  |  3:14:56  |  TBPN
Speakers
Andrew Reed — Partner, Sequoia Capital
Dara Khosrowshahi — CEO, Uber
Mitchell Green — Founder, Lead Edge Capital
Mati Staniszewski — Co-founder and CEO, ElevenLabs
KJ Dollywal — CEO and Co-founder, Lotus Health AI
Nick Sharp — Co-founder and CEO, Adio

Summary

The video covers TBPN's Super Bowl ad, Anthropic's provocative ad campaign against OpenAI, Walmart crossing $1 trillion in market cap, and interviews with ElevenLabs, Gergely Orosz, Dara Khosrowshahi, Mitchell Green, TurboPuffer, Lotus Health AI, and Adio. Main market discussion centers on Uber's autonomous vehicle strategy, public software and SaaS valuation debates, AI capex, and software disruption. The episode ends with Google earnings, chip geopolitics, and light market commentary.

  • TBPN unveils its regional Super Bowl ad and discusses Anthropic's attack-style AI advertising campaign.
  • Walmart reaches a $1 trillion market cap as e-commerce, automation, and delivery investments pay off.
  • ElevenLabs CEO Mati Staniszewski discusses a $500 million Series D at an $11 billion valuation and $330 million ARR.
  • Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi says autonomy is additive to demand and Uber's platform boosts AV utilization.
  • Mitchell Green argues public software is oversold and favors Workday, Salesforce, PayPal, HubSpot, EquipmentShare, and Ferrari.
  • Gergely Orosz discusses AI's impact on software engineering careers, hiring, and the value of interns.
  • TurboPuffer, Lotus Health AI, and Adio present private AI and software trends.
  • Google earnings and heavy AI capex frame the closing Mag 7 and chip geopolitics discussion.
Ideas
Andrew Reed Partner, Sequoia Capital 46:54
Public software selloff creates selective opportunity
Public software has been hit by indiscriminate selling, with a lot of baby thrown out with the bathwater. He argues the AI-native label is mostly a private-market phenomenon and the real test is whether businesses accelerate and deliver differentiated value as models improve, implying select public software is oversold.
IGV MED
Dara Khosrowshahi CEO, Uber 87:35
Uber supply flywheel and membership drive growth
Uber is a supply-led platform whose economics improve as more drivers, couriers, merchants, and restaurants join. The global combination of rides and Eats enables cross-promotion, Uber One membership creates lock-in with members spending three times more, and the business is scaling with accelerating gross bookings and nearly $10 billion of free cash flow.
UBER HIGH
Mitchell Green Founder, Lead Edge Capital 115:06
Public software oversold, we're buying
Public market software is not cheap, but it has been sold indiscriminately and he says they are buying. Many public software companies have durable trust, distribution, complex integrations, and enterprise switching costs, so the narrative that AI-native competitors will simply vibe-code them away is overdone.
IGV HIGH
Mitchell Green Founder, Lead Edge Capital 115:33
PayPal too cheap for payments network
PayPal trades at about seven times earnings, has half a billion users, and operates a global payments network. He argues money transfer and payments require trust, scale, and reliability that cannot simply be vibe-coded away, making the valuation attractive.
PYPL HIGH
Mitchell Green Founder, Lead Edge Capital 115:53
Enterprise software switching costs protect incumbents
Enterprise software like Workday and Salesforce is protected by decades of embedded mission-critical workflows, ERP and CRM data, user permissioning, distribution, and trust. AI can help competitors build features, but it cannot easily replicate the switching costs and enterprise relationships that make these incumbents durable.
WDAY CRM HIGH
Mitchell Green Founder, Lead Edge Capital 119:34
HubSpot self-disrupts to defend SMB
SMB software is generally more exposed to AI disruption because the products are less complex, but HubSpot is a great business with roughly a thousand software engineers actively trying to disrupt itself. That self-disruption should help it defend its SMB franchise better than generic SaaS peers.
HUBS MED
Mitchell Green Founder, Lead Edge Capital 121:11
EquipmentShare is AI capex second derivative
EquipmentShare is a great second-derivative AI play on infrastructure, data center, highway, and energy capex, helped by accelerated depreciation from the big beautiful bill. It is growing around 30% versus single-digit growth at United Rentals, Hertz, and Sunbelt with similar EBITDA margins, so it should earn multiple expansion if it keeps posting results.
EquipmentShare HIGH
Mitchell Green Founder, Lead Edge Capital 130:01
Ferrari brand is AI-resistant
Ferrari is an amazing brand with scarcity and pricing power that cannot be vibe-coded or replicated by AI. The stock is up 500% since its IPO, and he says his mistake was buying the cars instead of the stock.
RACE MED
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This TBPN video, published February 04, 2026, features Andrew Reed, Dara Khosrowshahi, Mitchell Green discussing IGV, UBER, PYPL, WDAY, CRM, HUBS, EquipmentShare, RACE. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Andrew Reed, Dara Khosrowshahi, Mitchell Green  · Tickers: IGV, UBER, PYPL, WDAY, CRM, HUBS, EquipmentShare, RACE