Amazon's $200B Capex Plans Cap Tough Week for Tech | The Pulse 2/6/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 06, 2026 at 11:33  |  48:28  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Matt — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Luis Costa — Head of Emerging-Market Strategy, Citi
Paul Davies — Bloomberg Opinion Columnist
John — CFO
Francine Lacqua — Anchor, Bloomberg
Isabelle Mateos y Lago — Group Chief Economist, BNP Paribas
Lindsay Newman — Visiting Research Fellow, King's College London
Andrew Bailey — Governor, Bank of England
Anna Carrera — Senior Editor, Digital Currencies, Bloomberg

Summary

Bloomberg's The Pulse examines a tough week for tech as massive AI capex plans, led by Amazon's $200B budget, spooked investors and intensified a software selloff. Guests debate AI disruption of business models, private-credit exposure, and the potential for a momentum unwind in gold, silver, AI, and Bitcoin. Macro strategists discuss EM carry, dollar weakness, Fed leadership, and geopolitical risks including Iran talks and Japan's snap election.

  • Big tech AI capex plans reach roughly $650B, with Amazon alone at $200B, pressuring tech shares.
  • Anthropic's Claude rollout raises fears of AI disruption in software, legal, and financial services.
  • Software selloff raises questions about private-credit exposures and private-equity books.
  • Luis Costa favors emerging-market currencies and selling dollars on carry and Fed policy uncertainty.
  • Isabelle Mateos y Lago argues Europe's lower equity exposure makes it more insulated from a US correction.
  • John Stepek sees the heat going out of momentum trades including Bitcoin, gold, silver, and AI.
  • BOE's Bailey signals possible further cuts, with March seen as roughly 50/50.
  • Geopolitical and political risks include US-Iran talks, Japan's snap election, and Thailand's election.
Ideas
Matt Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence 1:50
Big Tech capex needs ROI proof.
Mega-cap tech companies are committing to massive AI-related capital expenditure—Amazon alone announced $200B—because if one hyperscaler spends big, rivals must follow or cede future market opportunity. However, they have not yet proven that this spending will generate sufficient ROI, so the market is scrutinizing capex and multiples are at risk. This creates a monitoring setup for Big Tech and Amazon.
XLK AMZN MED
Luis Costa Head of Emerging-Market Strategy, Citi 10:02
Remain constructive on emerging markets.
He remains constructive on emerging markets because growth has returned, real yields are attractive, inflation is more stable, and the dollar is not collapsing. While tariffs and geopolitics create headline noise, EM fundamentals and carry continue to support the asset class.
EEM HIGH
Luis Costa Head of Emerging-Market Strategy, Citi 12:03
Sell dollar, favor EM carry.
Kevin Warsh is likely to be less hawkish than market expectations, especially on balance-sheet tightening, while the US administration wants faster growth and policy volatility is capping the dollar. If the dollar stays well behaved, selling dollars to fund EM carry is an immense opportunity.
USD MED
Luis Costa Head of Emerging-Market Strategy, Citi 16:15
Like BRL, South Africa, Korea, Taiwan.
Within emerging markets, he favors currencies because interest-rate and inflation dynamics are supportive. He specifically likes BRL/Brazil, South Africa given the metals and mining bias, and in Asia Korea, Taiwan, and the Thai baht, where carry and real-yield dynamics are attractive.
BRL EZA EWY EWT THB HIGH
John Author, Money Distilled 41:38
Software AI disruption remains messy.
AI disruption, led by Anthropic moving into legal and financial services, is hitting software and services business models. The selloff has been indiscriminate and may be a panic reaction, but it is hard to distinguish winners from losers, and further selling could continue.
IGV LOW
Paul Davies Bloomberg Opinion Columnist 43:04
Private credit software vintage looks bad.
Many software deals were done at peak valuations during and after the pandemic, then funded by private credit when banks pulled back after rates rose. That left overvalued, concentrated financing for assets now threatened by AI disruption; the vintage may prove very bad and is a risk for private credit.
BIZD MED
John Author, Money Distilled 46:29
Momentum unwind hits Bitcoin, metals, AI.
The Kevin Warsh nomination reduces expectations for an ultra-easy-money Fed, causing the dollar to strengthen and momentum trades to unwind. Bitcoin and silver have already collapsed, and the heat is going out of momentum trades including gold, silver, and AI.
BTC GLD SILVER AI-SECTOR MED
Paul Davies Bloomberg Opinion Columnist 47:55
KKR, Blue Owl books are fine.
KKR and Blue Owl have already gone through their books and are sanguine about their exposures, knowing what is there and settling down, suggesting they are okay despite the software and private-credit concerns.
KKR OWL LOW
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 06, 2026, features Matt, Luis Costa, John, Paul Davies discussing XLK, AMZN, EEM, USD, BRL, EZA, EWY, EWT, THB, IGV, BIZD, BTC, GLD, SILVER, AI-SECTOR, KKR, OWL. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Matt, Luis Costa, John, Paul Davies  · Tickers: XLK, AMZN, EEM, USD, BRL, EZA, EWY, EWT, THB, IGV, BIZD, BTC, GLD, SILVER, AI-SECTOR, KKR, OWL