Alteogen Becomes Today's Villain as Licensing Deal Size and Royalty Expectations Fall Short

[26.01.21. 오후 방송 전체보기] 알테오젠, 기술이전 규모 및 로열티 기대치 하회에 오늘의 빌런 등극
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 21, 2026 at 12:56  |  6:07:56  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Kim Jang-yeol — Reporter, The Bell
Lee Jae-kyu — PB Deputy Manager, SK Securities
Park Geun-hyung — Director
Ryu Jong-hoon — Reporter
Cho Won-kyung — Professor of Economics, Sejong University
Chun Jun-beom — Lawyer and CEO, Wise Forest
Kim Sang-hoon — Reporter, Understanding

Summary

The broadcast covered a resilient Korean market led by Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Hyundai Motor while Alteogen plunged on weaker-than-expected licensing terms and royalty assumptions. A special segment analyzed Korea's second ESS public tender and the shift toward LFP batteries, with implications for LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI. Later interviews discussed national capitalism, scarce assets such as gold, Gangnam real estate, dollar assets and defense stocks, a Supreme Court franchise-margin ruling, and China's rare-earth export restrictions on Japan.

  • KOSPI held near 4,900 as memory and auto/robot leaders offset global weakness.
  • Alteogen fell sharply after GSK deal size and Keytruda SC royalty missed expectations.
  • ESS/LFP battery demand and U.S./Europe restrictions on Chinese cells were framed as a Korean battery opportunity.
  • Park Geun-hyung highlighted memory, Hyundai, KEPCO, nuclear, cosmetics, space, and power equipment.
  • Cho Won-kyung argued for scarce assets including gold, Gangnam real estate, semiconductors, defense stocks, and dollar assets.
  • A franchise legal segment warned that Korean franchise headquarters may face repayment risk from excess margin rulings.
  • China's dual-use export ban on Japan raised rare-earth supply-chain concerns and interest in non-China suppliers such as MP Materials.
Ideas
Lee Jae-kyu PB Deputy Manager, SK Securities 5:05
Hyundai cheap with robot re-rating.
Hyundai Motor is cheap on about 12x earnings, has low foreign ownership, and is receiving a new robot/Boston Dynamics re-rating narrative. Chinese EV peers trade around 18x, so Hyundai still has valuation upside if the narrative holds.
Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 11:30
KOSPI upside justified by earnings.
KOSPI's rise toward 5,000 is mainly justified by upward earnings revisions, especially from memory semiconductor prices, rather than politics. With external shocks absent, 5,000 would already have been reached, and a small portion of the large waiting retail deposit pool could push it toward 5,300.
Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 13:41
Memory prices drive Samsung and SK hynix.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are moving on real earnings, not just narrative, because memory prices are surging due to AI demand and earnings estimates keep rising. He sees no reason to sell them yet and views them as the core support for the Korean market.
Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 18:30
Techwing lacks orders and coverage.
Techwing had rallied without confirmation of orders from Samsung, SK hynix, or Micron, and the much-anticipated IR did not produce a report or clear catalyst. With analyst coverage absent and the stock breaking down, he says he exited and advises not to hold it.
Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 19:57
Sam CNS probe-card report worth watching.
A fresh report on Sam CNS, a probe-card/space-transformer supplier with NAND exposure, included 2026 operating-profit forecasts and matched the recent memory/NAND strength. He finds the numbers credible and says the report is worth following, though he frames it as attention rather than a high-conviction buy.
Lee Jae-kyu PB Deputy Manager, SK Securities 32:06
Other bio platforms oversold buy opportunity.
The Alteogen shock triggered indiscriminate selling in other Korean bio-platform stocks, including ETF-related names such as ABL Bio and LigaChem Biosciences, but their own fundamentals were not impaired. He views that sympathy decline as a buying opportunity outside Alteogen.
Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 33:56
Alteogen royalty miss; step aside.
Alteogen's royalty rate of 2% for Keytruda SC and the smaller-than-expected GSK licensing deal undermine the core profit expectation, and the covering analyst cut the target price. When a heavily owned leader gets such a fundamental disappointment, he says step aside rather than catch the falling knife.
Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 63:58
TSE HBM/DRAM probe-card sales potential.
TSE, a probe-card-related name, had been strong in NAND and a report suggested it can now generate revenue from HBM/DRAM. The stock moved on that shift, making it a differentiated semiconductor test idea to watch.
Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 64:40
Semiconductor materials move last.
Within the semiconductor supply chain, materials tend to move last, so investors looking for lagging candidates should watch Korean semiconductor materials rather than chase test-equipment names that have already run.
Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 65:31
Solbrain stable HBM/NAND materials play.
Solbrain is a stable HBM and 3D NAND core-materials company; a recent report laid out a 380,000 won target and the stock was not expensive at about 15x P/E before the report. He likes it as a materials beneficiary.
Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 66:46
Hansol steady materials laggard.
Hansol Chemical is a steady, boring materials company rather than a high-beta mover, but he says it is not bad and should benefit as semiconductor materials move later in the cycle. He presents it as a lower-volatility way to stay in the materials theme.
Samsung SDI lacks LFP, faces ESS risk.
Samsung SDI lacks a domestic LFP line and is still relying on NCA for ESS, which is disadvantaged versus LFP on cost and safety. It also has the highest share of past ESS fire incidents, so the government's safety-weighted second bid may hurt its position after its aggressive first bid win.
ESS market growth favors Korean batteries.
The ESS market is expanding because of AI data centers, renewable energy, and grid investment, and the second 1 trillion won Korean public bid is only a precursor. U.S. and European restrictions on Chinese cells should push global buyers toward Korean battery makers.
LGES leads in LFP experience.
LG Energy Solution has the most LFP experience, overseas production, and yield know-how among Korean cell makers, and it has signed the largest number of ESS consortiums. He sees it as the likely main beneficiary of the LFP ESS shift.
KEPCO nuclear re-rating and margin recovery.
Korea Electric Power is rising on expectations of margin improvement, nuclear expansion, and a re-rating of its value; LS Securities raised its target to 80,000 won. Public opinion also appears more favorable to nuclear power.
Korean robot momentum strong but extended.
Robot-related momentum remains strong, with Hyundai Motor, Hyundai Movex, Hyolim Robot, and LG Electronics rising on continued robotics news. He still favors the theme but warns against chasing names that have already surged sharply.
Hyundai robot narrative drives re-rating.
Hyundai Motor is being re-rated by robot/Boston Dynamics momentum and the KB Securities target price hike to 800,000 won. He thinks the market is reassessing the entire Hyundai group's robot, autonomous-driving, and mobility value.
Memory chips supported by export data.
Korean semiconductor exports rose 70.2% year-on-year in early January, and DRAM/NAND spot prices continue to rise weekly on AI demand. He views memory/storage, especially Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, as the safest area within the market.
Power equipment earnings outlook remains good.
Power equipment and cable makers may still report good earnings as AI data centers and grid investment drive transformer and electrical infrastructure demand. He notes a short-term correction but keeps a positive earnings outlook.
Cosmetics exports support K-beauty valuation.
Korean cosmetics exports are growing across the U.S., Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, and export volumes confirm the trend is not peaking. With the sector around 10x P/E and solid Q4 expectations, he sees valuation appeal in K-beauty.
Silicone2 benefits from cosmetics exports.
Silicone2 is directly tied to the strong cosmetics export trend, especially to Europe and the Middle East, and is mentioned as a possible Olive Young U.S. vendor. Q4 results should beat once a one-off bonus is excluded, and Samsung Securities set a 64,000 won target.
PharmaResearch record earnings, attractive valuation.
PharmaResearch is expected to report record quarterly revenue of around 64 billion won and potentially 700 billion won in 2026 sales, implying about 26% growth. If estimates are met, he views the valuation as undemanding and the stock positively.
Korean nuclear momentum on policy support.
President Lee Jae-myung's comments on new large nuclear plants and SMRs, plus polling that about 70% of Koreans support new nuclear construction, are adding momentum. Overseas order potential in the Czech Republic, UAE, and Saudi Arabia and U.S. nuclear expansion support the theme.
Telecom equipment may benefit from AI.
A Hana Securities report argues that physical AI, edge computing, and 5G/6G upgrades will require new AI base stations and optical/telecom infrastructure, boosting telecom equipment demand. He presents it as a developing theme to monitor rather than a confirmed call.
Space sector event-driven upside.
SpaceX IPO expectations, U.S.-Korea space cooperation, and the upcoming Artemis project on February 6 are driving Korean aerospace/space stocks. He expects positive event-driven flows into the group.
Cho Won-kyung Professor of Economics, Sejong University 201:04
Euro strong; hold strong currencies.
The euro is stronger than eurozone fundamentals would suggest because global liquidity is abundant, and he thinks investors should hold strong currencies as part of diversification. He specifically notes the euro's strength despite Europe's weak growth.
Cho Won-kyung Professor of Economics, Sejong University 209:43
Gold should stay in portfolios.
Gold should be part of a portfolio because global liquidity keeps expanding, central banks keep buying, supply is slow to increase, and it has no default or payment-network risk like the dollar. He groups it with other scarce assets that can keep rising.
Cho Won-kyung Professor of Economics, Sejong University 210:43
Hold Gangnam real estate for scarcity.
Gangnam real estate is a scarcity asset that he would continue to hold; regulations suppress demand without solving supply, and he does not need to call it a bubble. He prefers owning it to trading it.
Cho Won-kyung Professor of Economics, Sejong University 210:53
Semiconductor stocks remain long-cycle holdings.
He would keep semiconductor stocks because the memory shortage and AI cycle may make this an unusually long cycle, though he acknowledges it is more cyclical and less stable than gold or Gangnam real estate and he would sell before the peak.
Cho Won-kyung Professor of Economics, Sejong University 216:43
Maintain dollar asset allocation.
The dollar remains an irreplaceable global asset even with fiscal worries, and portfolios should keep dollar-denominated assets such as U.S. stocks. He also recommends owning strong currencies, including the euro, as diversification.
Cho Won-kyung Professor of Economics, Sejong University 225:13
Defense stocks preferable to ESG now.
State capitalism and security spending have made defense stocks a more comfortable holding than ESG names. He says the market is rewarding defense because states are directing capital toward military-industrial capacity.
Chun Jun-beom Lawyer and CEO, Wise Forest 287:03
Franchise HQ margin repayments are risk.
The Supreme Court ruling on Pizza Hut Korea's excess franchise margin means franchise headquarters may have to disclose and return excess margins on forced items for up to five years. He expects many similar lawsuits against listed franchise restaurant headquarters, creating a material repayment risk.
Kim Sang-hoon Reporter, Understanding 355:56
MP Materials alternative supply beneficiary.
MP Materials already operates U.S. rare earth separation capacity and is building heavy rare earth separation. If the U.S. backstops Japan and other allies in building a non-China rare earth supply chain, MP Materials could benefit as an alternative supplier.
Kim Sang-hoon Reporter, Understanding 358:58
Rare earth supply risk worth watching.
China's broad dual-use export ban on Japan includes rare earths and many strategic materials, and if the dispute persists, rare earth supply could tighten and prices could spike. He expects an eventual resolution but warns of volatility and supply-chain damage in the interim.
Up Next

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 21, 2026, features Lee Jae-kyu, Kim Jang-yeol, Ryu Jong-hoon, Park Geun-hyung, Cho Won-kyung, Chun Jun-beom, Kim Sang-hoon discussing 005380.KS, EWY, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, 089030.KQ, Sam CNS, Korean bio platform stocks, 196170.KQ, TSE, SMH, 036830.KQ, 014680.KS, 006400.KS, ESS sector, 373220.KS, 015760.KS, Korean robot stocks, Korean power equipment and cables, KORU, 257720.KQ, 214450.KQ, Korean nuclear power sector, Telecom equipment stocks, Korean aerospace/space stocks, FXE, GLD, Gangnam real estate, US dollar assets, ITA, Korean franchise restaurant headquarters, MP, REMX. 34 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Lee Jae-kyu, Kim Jang-yeol, Ryu Jong-hoon, Park Geun-hyung, Cho Won-kyung, Chun Jun-beom, Kim Sang-hoon  · Tickers: 005380.KS, EWY, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, 089030.KQ, Sam CNS, Korean bio platform stocks, 196170.KQ, TSE, SMH, 036830.KQ, 014680.KS, 006400.KS, ESS sector, 373220.KS, 015760.KS, Korean robot stocks, Korean power equipment and cables, KORU, 257720.KQ, 214450.KQ, Korean nuclear power sector, Telecom equipment stocks, Korean aerospace/space stocks, FXE, GLD, Gangnam real estate, US dollar assets, ITA, Korean franchise restaurant headquarters, MP, REMX