Be prepared for further oil disruptions if Trump can't close a deal soon, says RBC's Helima Croft

Summary

Helima Croft analyzes the oil market risks stemming from U.S.-Iran negotiations, warning that if no deal is reached, further supply disruptions are likely, pushing oil prices higher. She discusses scenarios where Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz or escalation occurs, both bullish for oil. Additionally, she highlights China's strategic stockpiling and the potential for broader geopolitical tensions.

• Helima Croft discusses scenarios for U.S.-Iran negotiations and their impact on oil supply.
• She highlights the risk of Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz or military escalation.
• Current supply disruptions are the largest in history, with damage to energy facilities.
• China has stockpiled oil strategically, but could be drawn into the conflict.
• Market optimism may be misplaced if no deal is closed soon.
• Further disruptions could remove additional barrels from the market.
• The situation poses risks for global oil prices and energy security.
• Potential for high-stakes confrontation between superpowers if China is involved.