O JEITO DE INVESTIR DE UM DOS MAIORES GANHADORES DA BOLSA EM 2025 | Market Makers #309
Speakers
Matheus Soares
— Analista responsável pela carteira de ações do Market Makers
Summary
Thiago Salomão interviews Matheus Soares about how the Market Makers equity fund returned 48.8% in 2025 and the philosophy behind it. Matheus explains the focus on well-run companies, high market share, ROIC above cost of capital, low leverage and attractive valuation, and reviews winners and losers such as Mills, Vulcabras, Vivara and Tupy. He also discusses new positions, Kepler Weber's takeover arbitrage, a possible oil-sector addition, and a broad underowned Brazil/emerging-market equity cycle.
- The Market Makers equity fund returned 48.8% in 2025 versus roughly 34% for the Ibovespa, helped by beta and stock selection.
- The philosophy centers on buying good businesses run by trusted people, with market share, ROIC above cost of capital, low leverage and attractive valuation.
- Top contributors included Mills, Vulcabras and Vivara; Tupy was sold after governance and fundamental deterioration.
- New or differentiated positions discussed included Celesc, Irani, Suzano, Grupo Mateus and event-driven Kepler Weber.
- Kepler Weber is framed as a takeover arbitrage with a R$11/share offer versus about R$9.80.
- Matheus is studying oil exposure for portfolio diversification and mentions Chevron as a possible vehicle.
- Matheus sees Brazil and emerging-market equities as underowned and possibly starting a new cycle.
- Portfolio construction emphasizes diversified, resilient holdings rather than market timing.
Ideas
Sold on governance and earnings deterioration; watching.
The fund sold Tupy after the CEO was replaced in a political/governance intervention, the North American truck and freight cycle worsened, profit projections were cut sharply, leverage and covenants worsened, and the company made a poorly timed buyback. The business remains cyclical and liked, and they continue to follow it for a possible future opportunity, but today they see better risk-reward elsewhere.
CEO, market share, ROIC, cheap, low leverage.
Matheus Soares says Mills is one of the fund's largest and best contributors because CEO Sergio Caria has a long capital-allocation record, increased his stake and is locked in for 10 years; the company expanded from formwork into larger equipment-rental markets such as aerial platforms, yellow line and forklifts, has about 30% share in aerial platforms, ROIC above cost of capital, pays dividends and does not rely on leverage. After a liquidity-driven 30% selloff in late 2024 from a Latin American fund exiting, the fund added and it remains the third-largest position.
Cheap, strong brand, high yield, still discounted.
Vulcabras has been held since fund inception; it has the Corre brand, a strong position in footwear, keeps delivering results above expectations, trades around 10x earnings, still looks cheaper than Alpargatas, and can surprise through acquisitions, factory efficiency and brand expansion. The fund trimmed as it appreciated but still holds as a smaller position.
Market overreacted; quality jewelry, buybacks, gold advantage.
Vivara was a market darling that was abandoned after Nelson Kaufman took control in a way investors disliked; the stock fell below 7x earnings. Matheus judged the business quality remained high: verticalized jewelry model, high margins and market share, Pandora is not leader in Brazil, Kaufman was buying shares, and results did not deteriorate; a large gold inventory gave pricing and share-gain advantage as gold rose. The fund added and it became a top 2025 contributor.
Recent portfolio holding, limited detail.
Matheus says Grupo Mateus is a recent position in the Market Makers portfolio. No detailed company-specific thesis is developed in this episode; the mention serves as a portfolio holding alongside other diversified sector exposures.
OPA arbitrage with high annualized TIR.
Kepler Weber became an event-driven position after a takeover offer. The buyer wants to pay R$11 per share versus around R$9.80, a roughly 15% premium over a three-to-four-month expected closing period, which Matheus treats as a high-annualized-return fixed-income-like opportunity; minorities may push for more, which would be upside. The fund holds a relevant position instead of cash.
Cheaper differentiated utility with greater potential.
After selling Tupy, the fund bought Celesc to add utility exposure. They deliberately avoided widely owned utilities like Equatorial and Copel; Celesc has similar utility characteristics but was cheaper, had greater potential in their view, was less present in peers' portfolios, and became a top-five performance contributor.
Underfollowed paper play with margin inflection.
The fund bought Irani after selling Tupy. It is a less-followed paper company with an inflection: investments made earlier were set to improve efficiency, waste-paper input costs fell, margins and ROIC expanded, and the stock rose about 50% in the year. Matheus likes these underfollowed result-inflection stories with a trigger.
Contrarian short-fiber cellulose with demand tailwind.
The fund bought Suzano when sentiment was very negative and the market treated it as a value trap. The thesis is growing demand for short-fiber cellulose and migration from long-fiber or pinus to short fiber, plus portfolio diversification; even if the dollar falls and Suzano underperforms, other holdings should support the portfolio.
Oil cheap vs gold, watching for exposure.
Matheus wants to add oil exposure to the portfolio for diversification and resilience before the Brazilian election. He sees oil as cheap versus gold on long cycles, believes the negative demand narrative is overdone and the IEA has revised demand upward, and expects oil not to become obsolete in 15-20 years. They are studying the sector and were watching Chevron as a possible vehicle.
Underowned Brazil equities starting new cycle.
Matheus says Brazil and emerging markets are underowned after losing exposure in global ETF portfolios, and he believes the market may be at the start of a new cycle with a good period for equities while nobody is invested. That supports a constructive stance on Brazilian equities.
Up Next
This Market Makers video, published January 11, 2026, features Matheus Soares discussing TUPY3.SA, MILS3.SA, VULC3.SA, VIVA3.SA, GMAT3.SA, KEPL3.SA, CLSC3.SA, RANI3.SA, SUZB3.SA, WTI, CVX, BOVA11.SA. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Matheus Soares · Tickers: TUPY3.SA, MILS3.SA, VULC3.SA, VIVA3.SA, GMAT3.SA, KEPL3.SA, CLSC3.SA, RANI3.SA, SUZB3.SA, WTI, CVX, BOVA11.SA