Samsung Electronics Earnings Announcement: Will the Market Cheer? Fate Is Divided / If You're Afraid of a "Crash," You Must Check 'This' | Director Lee Young-hoon

Summary

Director Lee Young-hoon of iM Securities discusses the recent semiconductor pullback, arguing it is driven by technical factors like leveraged ETF flows and pension fund rebalancing rather than a fundamental deterioration. He remains bullish on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix on dips, prefers them over Korean semiconductor equipment names, and highlights attractive US sectors such as small caps, biotech, and industrials. He also shares a bearish medium-term view on oil prices and watches for a potential Samsung Electronics share buyback catalyst, while seeing little near-term movement in the won-dollar exchange rate and US interest rates.

• Semiconductor weakness is attributed to leveraged ETF gamma effects, foreign selling, and pension fund rebalancing, not a fundamental AI-cycle end.
• Lee advocates buying Samsung Electronics and SK hynix on pullbacks, viewing the fundamental demand-supply tightness and DRAM price increases as intact.
• Korean semiconductor equipment stocks are considered less attractive versus Samsung Electronics due to elevated valuations and reliance on global trends.
• In the US, Russell small caps, biotech, and industrial sectors are highlighted as performing well in a broad-market rotation, contrasting with Korea's concentrated market.
• Oil prices are expected to decline with a lag once ceasefire bets materialize.
• Samsung Electronics' upcoming earnings may bring a share buyback announcement that could serve as a short-term positive catalyst.
• The won-dollar exchange rate is stuck in a dilemma and unlikely to see a large near-term move, despite fundamental won undervaluation.
• Lee sees little chance of further US rate hikes, with oil as a key indicator to monitor for rate direction.