What To Own This Cycle?
Speakers
Jonah Van Bourg
— Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol
Avi Felman
— Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management
Summary
The hosts discuss the recent crypto selloff and whether it changed the cycle, concluding it was mostly a leverage flush within a still-bullish market. They debate ETH as an institutional catch-up trade, Galaxy and other crypto equities as meme-like instruments, Hyperliquid's exchange-driven token economics, and institutional assets such as Bitcoin, ETH, and XRP. Macro and regulatory tailwinds, plus a coming rate-cut cycle, frame the bullish bias, while they warn that holding the wrong token carries high opportunity cost.
- Crypto selloff viewed as a leverage reset, not a structural change.
- Bitcoin remains the benchmark; hosts expect higher prices and a post-summer move.
- ETH is favored as a flow-driven, treasury-company-supported catch-up trade.
- Institutional cycle thesis supports owning Bitcoin, ETH, and XRP.
- Galaxy and Coinbase are discussed as meme-like crypto equities; Coinbase puts are mentioned.
- Hyperliquid and HYPE are highlighted for exchange buybacks and a US perp legalization catalyst.
- TON, Litecoin, and XRP are cited as potential treasury-company or IPO trades.
- Macro backdrop includes regulatory green lights and expectations of rate cuts.
Ideas
Bitcoin leads higher after leverage flush.
Friday's selloff to 113K was a leverage flush, not a structural change. Most people who bought or added leverage at highs were punished, but the long-term thesis is intact; bull markets get volatile in late innings, and crypto's parabolic phase likely comes near the end. He does not see reasons to get long-term bearish until the midterms and expects a crazy move after summer, especially September through November.
Macro green lights keep Bitcoin bid.
The market got over its skis with exuberance and leverage, but the pullback is a normal shakeout rather than a structural change. The broader idea remains a big move into late summer and autumn, and macro is constructive: regulatory green lights in Washington, a coming rate-cut cycle, and more interventionist executive branch policy are bullish for crypto. He expects Bitcoin, the benchmark, to lead higher and alt season to follow.
Leveraged ETH long is tactical trade.
He got bullish on ETH while talking through the setup and views it as a trade: buy ETH on leverage using existing Bitcoin as collateral rather than selling BTC and realizing tax gains. If Bitcoin goes way up or down ETH trades as high-beta BTC, but within a reasonable band ETH can steadily outperform. CME ETH short interest may be mostly basis trades, but crypto is a meme and the setup plus treasury-company flows can squeeze higher; he yoloed some leveraged ETH.
Own Bitcoin, ETH, XRP this institutional cycle.
ETH has an alpha component beyond high-beta Bitcoin because treasury companies are buying a lot of ETH and are not yet big. In a middle zone where Bitcoin goes sideways or slightly down, ETH can still put in 15-20% outperformance. ETH is in a good spot on flows and technicals; he was too focused on fundamentals before, missed the technical setup, and now says he does not own ETH but probably should reallocate for the trade.
Own Bitcoin, ETH, XRP this institutional cycle.
This is an institutional cycle, not a crypto-native cycle. Institutions are buying institutional assets: Bitcoin first, Ethereum second, and Ripple third. He suggests owning a portfolio of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple until those institutional flows subside, even if the fundamental case varies by asset.
HYPE triples when US perps legalize.
US access to perpetual swaps and leverage would be a major catalyst for altcoins and especially Hyperliquid. He says $HYPE is tripling when that happens and calls it the big catalyst for Hyperliquid.
Hyperliquid token benefits from exchange buybacks.
People have moved on from Hyperliquid to Galaxy and other memes after a few red candles, but the exchange keeps generating activity and buys or burns tokens. The token does not need timeline excitement to go up; it needs the exchange to survive, which it likely will given few no-KYC alternatives and a strong product and UX. It is not institutional yet but could become institutional when US perps are legalized.
Galaxy is top crypto meme stock.
Galaxy has real value, including a data center transitioning to AI and a good core crypto business, but people are trading it like a meme stock. Of the institutional crypto tickers, Galaxy has the most potential to become a random meme stock like GameStop or Krispy Kreme because it has a great name, a charismatic public leader in Mike Novogratz, crypto plus AI exposure, and some people making a fundamental case. The risk is that institutional coverage and ratings cause a repricing, but the setup is a trade.
Circle top is already in.
Circle is another crypto-equity top they called. He says it is over for the Circle fanboys, implying the stock has topped and should be avoided or shorted.
Coinbase move is pure meme trade.
Coinbase's move from $254 on June 18 to up 72% by July 18 and then down 30% in three weeks had nothing to do with crypto volumes or fundamentals; it was pure people aping in because crypto is hot and aping out on a red candle. He thinks it is over for the Coinbase fanboys, has owned puts, and bought puts Friday morning.
TON treasury company is likely upcoming.
He took a flyer on TON because it is almost unfathomable that they would not try to create a TON treasury company. Telegram is a good investment, and TON is one of the few crypto assets he could sell to public institutions in the public market. He expects a treasury company at some point.
Galaxy earnings create binary trade.
Galaxy earnings are a binary event. If earnings are good, the market may ignore detailed analysis and relentlessly bull-post, sending the stock to around $40 from $29. If it trades down $5-6, it is probably a buy. Edge may come from being on Twitter or Reddit because that community determines price action in the name.
Ripple IPO could send XRP moon.
Ripple may have started as a scam, but it has a massive war chest and is buying legitimate companies like Hidden Road to become a legitimate player. They care about Ripple Labs equity, want to go public, and if Ripple Labs goes public, XRP can moon. He suggests buying TON or Ripple as a trade, expecting September to be a big month and a Ripple IPO announcement by year-end.
Litecoin strength supports treasury vehicle thesis.
Litecoin is trading very well, up 20% off the weekend lows, and the chart looks good. People realize Litecoin could be rolled into a treasury vehicle fairly easily, and it is the silver to Bitcoin's gold.
Up Next
This 1000x Podcast video, published August 04, 2025, features Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman discussing BTC, ETH, XRP, HYPE, GLXY, CRCL, COIN, TON, LTC. 14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman · Tickers: BTC, ETH, XRP, HYPE, GLXY, CRCL, COIN, TON, LTC