Market Crash ‘Already Happened’: Trader Reveals Stocks, Bitcoin Next Moves | Lance Breitstein

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  December 09, 2025 at 18:25  |  38:24  |  The David Lin Report
Speakers
Lance Breitstein — Host, TheOneLanceB; Advisor, SMB Capital; veteran trader
David Lin — Founder & Host, The David Lin Report / ex-Anchor, Kitco News

Summary

Lance Breitstein, trader and host of TheOneLanceB, discusses why he sees froth in quantum computing and OKLO rather than in the broader tech/AI complex, why he thinks the S&P 500 already had its major correction in April, and how he trades Bitcoin capitulations using Bollinger bands and volume. He also explains MSTR's premium compression toward NAV, why he disagrees that Bitcoin is a leading indicator for equities, and why he expects Bitcoin's long-term returns to normalize. The interview emphasizes separating frothy subsectors from the overall market and using sentiment, rate of change, and execution to stack odds.

  • Quantum computing and OKLO are viewed as frothy, no-revenue speculative names that topped.
  • Broader big tech and AI are seen as fundamentally supported, not a bubble, with Nvidia defended as not expensive.
  • The S&P 500 is described as having already seen its major crash in April and now grinding higher with little leverage.
  • MSTR's underperformance is attributed to NAV premium compression rather than simply high beta to Bitcoin.
  • Bitcoin's November 21 capitulation low is expected to hold near-term, likely in a range.
  • Bitcoin's long-term returns are expected to normalize, raising questions about speculative holders.
  • Crypto treasury companies are called a nonsensical theme that failed to support crypto prices.
  • Bitcoin is not treated as a reliable leading indicator for equities.
Ideas
Lance Breitstein Host, TheOneLanceB; Advisor, SMB Capital; veteran trader 1:33
Quantum computing top; avoid frothy names.
Quantum computing reached a fever-pitch froth in October. Names such as Rigetti, IonQ, and D-Wave had risen from a few dollars to $40-$50 on hope for a far-off quantum future, but their revenues are only a few million dollars or less and the businesses are almost impossible to value. There were no true quantum leap advancements, so the collapse was sentiment reversing after an unsustainable move; these frothy quantum names should be avoided.
QUBT RGTI IONQ QBTS HIGH
Lance Breitstein Host, TheOneLanceB; Advisor, SMB Capital; veteran trader 1:39
OKLO top; no revenue, impossible valuation.
OKLO in the SMR nuclear space had gone up at an unsustainable rate, similar to quantum. It has little or no revenue and no reliable way to value the business; the price is a total guess about whether SMR nuclear becomes meaningful in 5-15 years. That makes it a frothy name vulnerable to a top or collapse, so avoid it.
OKLO HIGH
Lance Breitstein Host, TheOneLanceB; Advisor, SMB Capital; veteran trader 1:55
April crash already happened; no big crash.
The major correction or crash already happened in April during the tariff selloff, and the market has fully retraced. Since then the S&P 500 has been in a steady grind higher, staying near equilibrium rather than becoming euphoric or Bollinger-band overextended, and the April flush removed weak hands and leverage. Lance does not expect another big crash and says not to fight the steady-strong trend.
SPY HIGH
Lance Breitstein Host, TheOneLanceB; Advisor, SMB Capital; veteran trader 4:54
Big Tech not bubble; fundamentals real.
The AI boom in broad big tech is not a dot-com-style bubble. There are real fundamental use cases and spending: people use ChatGPT and Gemini daily, Nvidia chips are broadly used, and corporate investment, earnings, and productivity support the cycle. Froth has been isolated to speculative no-revenue areas like quantum, while the broader tech sector never became totally divorced from reality.
XLK MED
Lance Breitstein Host, TheOneLanceB; Advisor, SMB Capital; veteran trader 6:29
Nvidia not expensive; real AI use cases.
Nvidia is not a bubble; it may be called overvalued but that is a different argument. The company has real revenue and fundamental use cases, and its chips are in virtually everything, so it is not just hope-based like quantum. Lance also says Nvidia is not even that expensive.
NVDA MED
Lance Breitstein Host, TheOneLanceB; Advisor, SMB Capital; veteran trader 11:13
MSTR should trade near Bitcoin NAV.
Strategy/MSTR is ultimately a Bitcoin holding company and should trade roughly around the net asset value of its Bitcoin. Its late-2024 premium was driven by retail euphoria and lack of easy Bitcoin alternatives, but Bitcoin ETFs and the company's own arbitrage, issuing overpriced debt and equity to buy Bitcoin, made premium compression inevitable. The underperformance versus Bitcoin is a rational reversion to NAV, not merely high beta, and the prior $400+ price was unjustified.
MSTR HIGH
Lance Breitstein Host, TheOneLanceB; Advisor, SMB Capital; veteran trader 15:37
Bitcoin capitulation low likely holds near-term.
After Bitcoin fell from about $100,000 to $80,000 in just over a week, November 21 saw a high-volume overnight capitulation that flushed leveraged longs and pushed price far below the lower Bollinger Band. Lance became bullish and bought that capitulation as a swing trade, though he has since sold. He believes the November 21 low is likely to hold in the short-to-medium term and that Bitcoin will probably consolidate in a range through year-end.
BTC HIGH
Lance Breitstein Host, TheOneLanceB; Advisor, SMB Capital; veteran trader 31:44
Crypto treasury companies nonsensical; avoid theme.
The crypto treasury-company theme was nonsensical. Many companies raised and poured billions into Bitcoin and Ethereum, yet Bitcoin and Ethereum still showed relative weakness over the following months. The theme did not create durable value or support crypto prices, so avoid the crypto treasury-company basket.
Crypto treasury companies MED
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This The David Lin Report video, published December 09, 2025, features Lance Breitstein discussing QUBT, RGTI, IONQ, QBTS, OKLO, SPY, XLK, NVDA, MSTR, BTC, Crypto treasury companies. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Lance Breitstein  · Tickers: QUBT, RGTI, IONQ, QBTS, OKLO, SPY, XLK, NVDA, MSTR, BTC, Crypto treasury companies