Will the crash end? 'Don't be scared,' but 3 risks warned by Jang Woojin, CEO of Geumsigong

Summary

Jang Woo-jin, CEO of Geumsigong, argues that the recent market crash is overdone and forced selling has cleared weak hands. He points to dollar weakness as a sign that war fears are not overwhelming, and sees a short-term KOSPI rebound as likely, though not a V-shaped recovery. He recommends buying on dips, especially oversold semiconductor large-caps like SK hynix and Samsung Electronics, while warning that KOSDAQ will underperform due to weak earnings. Three tail risks—a credit crisis, war-driven oil spike, and a major earthquake hitting TSMC—could extend the downturn but are low probability.

• Jang Woo-jin sees the sharp sell-off as overdone with forced selling largely completed, supporting a near-term rebound in KOSPI.
• Dollar weakness suggests that war fears are not dominating safe-haven flows, reducing the risk of a deeper crash.
• He identifies three low-probability tail risks: credit rating downgrades, oil surging to $100 on war escalation, and a strong earthquake disrupting TSMC.
• SK hynix is considered deeply oversold; accumulated earnings over 3-4 years could push PBR below 1x, signaling value.
• Samsung Electronics' LTA contracts provide multi-year earnings stability, making the recent sell-off excessive.
• KOSDAQ is expected to underperform KOSPI due to weak earnings contributions from batteries/biotech and relatively high valuations.
• Investors should not chase rallies; the market remains in a trading range, and buying on dips is preferred, especially in semiconductor large-caps.