Yen Declines After BOJ Hike, US Said to Hold Off on New China Tariffs

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 18, 2026 at 11:50  |  42:56  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Brian Fowler — Bloomberg Reporter
Paul Donovan — Chief Economist, UBS Global Wealth Management
Thomas Schulz — CEO, Bilfinger
Chloe Meley — Reporter, Bloomberg
Brendan Murray — Trade Reporter, Bloomberg
Guy Johnson — Anchor, Bloomberg

Summary

The video covers the Bank of Japan's rate hike and the yen's decline as markets viewed Governor Ueda as dovish, while Brian Fowler argues Ueda was actually hawkish. The US is expected to delay new China tariffs until after the Trump-Xi summit. Bilfinger's CEO discusses a surprise guidance cut, blaming delayed maintenance work, and UBS's Paul Donovan explains why he sees yen fair value at 160-165 and expects a second Fed hike. Oil falls on easing Middle East supply concerns.

  • Bank of Japan hikes rates by 25bp to 1.25%; yen weakens as market reads Ueda's press conference as dovish.
  • Brian Fowler argues Ueda was actually hawkish and more BOJ hikes are likely in December or January.
  • US expected to hold off on new China tariffs until after next week's Trump-Xi summit.
  • Bilfinger CEO Thomas Schulz says guidance cut is due to temporary customer deferrals, not a structural shift.
  • Paul Donovan says yen fair value is around 160-165 and intervention does not change fundamentals.
  • Donovan expects a second Fed rate hike this year; inflation pressures are concentrated and not broad.
  • Oil falls for a third day as Middle East supply concerns ease and Iranian talks are awaited.
  • India tech and AI opportunity segment highlights Infosys pivot and robust demand.
Ideas
Brian Fowler Bloomberg Reporter 7:23
BOJ will keep hiking, supporting yen.
The BOJ's rate hike was almost fully priced and the market initially read Governor Ueda as dovish, but Fowler argues Ueda was actually hawkish: he said the BOJ has reached a new policy stage, underlying inflation is close to 2%, and it must guard against overshooting. Fowler expects more rate hikes, possibly in December or January, so the yen should eventually strengthen despite the initial selloff.
Thomas Schulz CEO, Bilfinger 16:25
Bilfinger guidance cut is temporary, not structural.
Bilfinger's surprise guidance cut is driven by Saudi and other blue-chip customers postponing necessary technical maintenance and turnaround work into next year because of geopolitical uncertainty and high energy costs. Schulz argues this is temporary, not a structural shift, because that maintenance cannot be postponed indefinitely and the group's longer-term profitable growth trajectory remains intact, setting up a potential recovery once deferred work resumes.
Paul Donovan Chief Economist, UBS Global Wealth Management 24:52
Yen fair value is 160-165 per dollar.
The yen's fair value is around 160-165 per dollar. The recent intervention by Treasury Secretary Bessent only strengthened the yen temporarily because it did not change the fundamental drivers: relative economic performance and capital flows. Absent further intervention, dollar-yen should drift back toward that fair value, meaning the yen weakens.
Paul Donovan Chief Economist, UBS Global Wealth Management 24:52
Yen fair value is 160-165 per dollar.
The yen's fair value is around 160-165 per dollar. The recent intervention by Treasury Secretary Bessent only strengthened the yen temporarily because it did not change the fundamental drivers: relative economic performance and capital flows. Absent further intervention, dollar-yen should drift back toward that fair value, meaning the yen weakens.
Up Next

This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 18, 2026, features Brian Fowler, Thomas Schulz, Paul Donovan discussing FXY, BIF.DE, USD/JPY. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Brian Fowler, Thomas Schulz, Paul Donovan  · Tickers: FXY, BIF.DE, USD/JPY