Yen Falls After BOJ Rate Hike as Oil Extends Slide

Watch on YouTube ↗ | September 18, 2026 at 11:31 | 48:47 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Alessia Berardi — Amundi Investment Institute, Head of Emerging Macro Strategy

Sayuri Shirai — Former BOJ Board Member; Professor of Economics

Martijn Rats — Executive Director, Goldman Sachs

Carlos Cuerpo — Spanish Minister of Economy, Trade & Enterprise & Deputy Prime Minister

Greg Sullivan — Russia Economy and Government Editor, Bloomberg

Chad Thomas — Bloomberg Europe Executive Editor

Summary

The Bank of Japan raised rates in a split vote, but Governor Ueda's lack of hawkish guidance pushed the yen lower. European finance ministers met in Dublin, with Spain's economy minister discussing EU-Canada ties, energy taxes, and China trade. Oil fell for a third day as traders watched U.S.-Iran diplomacy, while Morgan Stanley's commodities strategist argued supply-chain disruptions and depleted buffers still support crude and diesel. Russia seized Nestlé and Auchan assets, and the program also covered German politics, U.S. midterms, and China's AI ambitions.

BOJ hikes rates but yen weakens after Ueda's non-hawkish tone.
European finance ministers and central bankers meet in Dublin.
Spain pushes EU-Canada associate membership and energy windfall tax discussion.
Oil falls for a third day; Middle East supply disruptions remain in focus.
Morgan Stanley sees crude, diesel, and tanker rates supported by supply stress.
Russia seizes Nestlé and Auchan local businesses.
German state elections and U.S. midterms are key political risks.
China's AI ambitions and U.S.-China competition remain in focus.

Ideas

Alessia Berardi Amundi Investment Institute, Head of Emerging Macro Strategy 12:12

Energy prices stay high short term

Energy prices should remain high in the short term because Middle East escalation is ongoing and supply disruptions persist; Saudi Arabia's reassurance that it can fix the pipeline in days is good news, but the supply impact is still clear. Governments shielding corporates from higher energy costs also adds fiscal cost.

Alessia Berardi Amundi Investment Institute, Head of Emerging Macro Strategy 13:58

EM policy credibility supports emerging markets

Emerging markets are showing credible policy and a sound policy mix, with central bank independence evident in Brazil cutting rates while the Fed hikes. Domestic conditions in EM are becoming more important than Fed policy, which supports the asset class.

Sayuri Shirai Former BOJ Board Member; Professor of Economics 18:14

BOJ inaction keeps yen weak

The BOJ's rate hike was accompanied by no additional hawkish signal from Governor Ueda, who appears to want to avoid continuous rate hikes to protect asset prices. Markets are disappointed, so the yen is depreciating; the BOJ is caught between the need to raise rates to correct an excessively cheap yen and the weak domestic economy.

Sayuri Shirai Former BOJ Board Member; Professor of Economics 20:27

Weak yen benefits Japanese exporters

Yen depreciation benefits Japanese exporters and higher stock prices, and the prime minister is attentive to those beneficiaries even as households suffer from imported inflation. This creates a conflict that supports the export sector if yen weakness persists.

Martijn Rats Executive Director, Goldman Sachs 27:49

Tanker rates elevated on dislocations

The tanker market is severely dislocated and tanker rates are through the roof because of disruptions in the Middle East and the broader oil supply chain. This supports tanker shipping earnings.

Martijn Rats Executive Director, Goldman Sachs 28:22

Diesel stays elevated on supply stress

Diesel is the end product reflecting simultaneous problems in crude, shipping, and refining. It is already at all-time record highs around $200 per barrel in Europe and $220 in the U.S., and as crude tightens its share of the diesel price should expand.

Martijn Rats Executive Director, Goldman Sachs 28:45

Supply damage supports higher crude oil

Crude oil is likely to go higher because the market is facing cumulative supply disruptions across Hormuz, the East-West pipeline, global refining, and shipping, while commercial inventories have been depleted and physical-market stress is showing up in steep backwardation. The damage and buffers running out are unprecedented in recent decades.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 18, 2026, features Alessia Berardi, Sayuri Shirai, Martijn Rats discussing XLE, EEM, FXY, Japanese Exporters, BWET, HO=F, WTI. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Alessia Berardi, Sayuri Shirai, Martijn Rats · Tickers: XLE, EEM, FXY, Japanese Exporters, BWET, HO=F, WTI