Could Gold & Silver Break the Market? Jack & Max on Fed, Earnings, and Software Sell-off
Speakers
Jack Farley
— Host, Monetary Matters
Max Wiethe
— Co-host, Other People's Money
Summary
Jack Farley and Max Wiethe review a relentless precious-metals rally, a hawkish Fed meeting, dollar weakness, and major earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla and software companies. They debate whether silver's surge is industrial rather than speculative, whether capex is still rewarding hyperscalers, and how AI disruption is pressuring SaaS valuations. The discussion also covers AI chip and memory demand, Tesla's physical-AI narrative, and natural gas demand from data centers.
- Gold and silver continue record rallies; Jack argues gold is monetary and silver is industrial.
- The Fed holds a hawkish tone, making a March cut unlikely; the dollar remains weak.
- Microsoft beats but sells off on Azure deceleration and high capex; Meta rallies on ad strength.
- Tesla auto revenue falls sharply, but its stock story remains tied to robotaxis, robots and AI.
- AI capex and memory tightness are seen supporting chip names like Nvidia and Broadcom.
- SaaS stocks are under pressure from fears AI will commoditize software; speakers debate which names survive.
- Natural gas and off-grid power are highlighted as important for AI data centers.
Ideas
Gold rally is monetary and durable.
Jack argues gold's surge is monetary, not just a marketing 'debasement trade.' Central banks accelerated gold buying after Russia's reserves were frozen, global institutions and sovereign wealth funds are allocating, the dollar is rich and trending weaker, and trend-following flows reinforce the move. He says this is very good for gold investors even as it signals stress in US-dollar capital markets.
Silver shortage supports industrial rally.
Jack says silver's rally is primarily industrial, not speculative or purely monetary. Years of underinvestment have created real shortages and drawdowns; even though solar demand was slightly soft, the deficit remains real. Despite warnings from longtime bulls like Rick Rule, he says the rally seems to have legs.
Dollar rich, foreign assets outperform.
Jack views the dollar as extremely richly valued because of the flood of global capital into US assets. He thinks a weaker dollar is not bad for the world, expects seeds of US-dollar underperformance, and says a falling dollar can cause foreign assets to outperform. He cautions the short-dollar/EM trade is crowded and needs a catalyst.
Dollar rich, foreign assets outperform.
Jack views the dollar as extremely richly valued because of the flood of global capital into US assets. He thinks a weaker dollar is not bad for the world, expects seeds of US-dollar underperformance, and says a falling dollar can cause foreign assets to outperform. He cautions the short-dollar/EM trade is crowded and needs a catalyst.
Latin America gains from capital repatriation.
Max says South America/Latin America is one of the hottest market areas, driven by the Donroe doctrine and Western Hemisphere focus, Argentina's success and regional moves toward free-market policies, and the potential for a small amount of US-saved capital to repatriate home and move small markets.
Oracle AI backlog may not be profitable.
Jack notes Oracle's stock has suffered a brutal drawdown after its RPO surge because investors doubt whether AI backlog will be profitable. He highlights margin concerns and customer concentration in OpenAI, Anthropic and other VC-backed loss-makers, questioning whether they can sustain huge cash expenditures.
Capex no longer boosts hyperscaler shares.
After Microsoft beat but sold off, Jack argues the era when relentless AI capex growth alone drove hyperscaler stocks higher appears over. Azure growth slowed to 39%, capex was massive, and the RPO surge no longer impressed investors, especially as AI customers may be unprofitable VC-backed firms. Microsoft is the clearest example, but the warning is for hyperscaler equities broadly.
AI chip demand remains in middle innings.
Jack is highly positive on AI chip and data-center capex beneficiaries. Microsoft's huge capex and demand exceeding supply are exceptionally good for Nvidia and other suppliers. He says AI chip earnings, especially Nvidia and Broadcom, should dominate, and notes extreme memory tightness at SK hynix, Samsung and Micron with rising prices. Rising prices for older Nvidia chips suggest inference demand is overwhelming. He sees the AI capex boom in middle innings and potentially secular into 2028.
Meta core ads strength rewards shares.
Max notes Meta beat earnings, raised Q1 guidance above expectations, and is up over 8% after hours. The strength is in the core advertising business: impressions and ad spend are rising, and investors are rewarding Meta because the core business is powering forward while AI capex concerns are less of a shock.
Tesla AI optionality keeps story intact.
Max says Tesla remains a story stock whose story is still intact. Although the auto quarter was weak, the stock is being supported by optionality from robotaxis, humanoid robots, a $2 billion xAI investment, and possible battery/off-grid power exposure to data centers. He views robotaxi miles as early and far behind Waymo, so the thesis is developing rather than fully proven.
Data centers need natural gas power.
Max says natural gas and off-grid power solutions will be important for powering AI data centers. Solar may also matter, but its intermittency requires storage, reinforcing demand for gas and off-grid power.
Tesla auto decline undermines valuation.
Jack is skeptical of Tesla's valuation. Automotive revenue fell 11% and has mostly declined for two and a half years; operating margin was only 5.7%, close to Ford/GM; the company's language emphasizes a future 'physical AI' story while omitting the core revenue decline. He sees no strong argument for shares doing well if car revenues keep shrinking and robots/robotaxi do not deliver.
ServiceNow retention makes it software gem.
Jack owns ServiceNow and calls it compelling, a total leader in software. He points to 98-99% retention, embedded enterprise workflows, and the fact that long-tenured customers become more valuable. While AI could disrupt some software, he thinks ServiceNow may be a gem being sold with the SaaS bathwater, though he admits he does not fully understand the product.
AI commoditization pressures software valuations.
Jack says AI may commoditize software by collapsing the marginal cost of creating it, shifting the moat to retention, customer experience, distribution and brand. The SaaS doomsday narrative is pressuring the sector, but the winners and losers require name-by-name work; he is not confident valuation alone will save truly disrupted software companies.
ServiceTitan oversold with SaaS bathwater.
Jack highlights ServiceTitan, vertical software for plumbers and electricians. The bear case that tradespeople will build their own software seems unlikely given the complexity of billing and job documentation. He thinks it is being sold off with the commoditized SaaS bathwater even though its niche is specialized and sticky.
HubSpot seat pricing risks switching.
Max worries about seat-based SaaS pricing more than vibe coding. HubSpot is expensive per seat and bundles features customers may not want; cheaper alternatives like Mailchimp can be far less expensive. If competitors can recreate wanted features cheaply and undercut pricing, HubSpot could face switching pressure.
CRM software is highly commoditized.
Max says horizontal CRM software is highly commoditized because it applies to every business and has many alternatives. Unless a customer is a massive enterprise needing all bells and whistles, price-sensitive SMBs may switch to cheaper competitors, pressuring Salesforce and similar CRM names.
Adobe valuation won't save disruption.
Jack calls Adobe a famous loser in the AI-disruption software selloff and warns that valuation compression will not save it. Even after falling from 50x to 24x earnings, a truly disrupted business could see earnings and multiples fall much further.
Up Next
This Monetary Matters video, published January 29, 2026, features Jack Farley, Max Wiethe discussing GLD, SILVER, USD, Foreign assets, Latin America, ORCL, SKYY, MSFT, SMH, NVDA, AVGO, MU, 000660.KS, 005930.KS, META, TSLA, UNG, NOW, Software/SaaS, TTAN, HUBS, CRM, ADBE. 18 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jack Farley, Max Wiethe · Tickers: GLD, SILVER, USD, Foreign assets, Latin America, ORCL, SKYY, MSFT, SMH, NVDA, AVGO, MU, 000660.KS, 005930.KS, META, TSLA, UNG, NOW, Software/SaaS, TTAN, HUBS, CRM, ADBE