US National Debt on Brink of Passing $40 Trillion | Balance of Power 08/18/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 18, 2026 at 23:42  |  51:25  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Emily Graffeo — Anchor, Bloomberg
Maya MacGuineas — President, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Nicole Malliotakis — Republican Congresswoman, New York
Jeff Mason — White House Correspondent
Jake Sullivan — Former US National Security Advisor
Kareem Crayton — Vice President, Brennan Center Washington, DC Office

Summary

The episode covers US-Canada tariff brinkmanship, primary-day politics in Florida, Alaska and Wyoming, DOJ election-monitor concerns, and the bond market selloff as US debt nears $40 trillion. Emily Graffeo explains that long-term Treasury yields are at multi-year highs because bondholders are demanding more compensation and expect higher-for-longer rates. Maya MacGuineas links rising yields to deficits and warns that deficit reduction is the most important sustainable fix for affordability.

  • US and Canada face a midnight tariff deadline with a last-minute deal seen as unlikely.
  • Florida, Alaska and Wyoming primaries offer signals on Trump's GOP influence and Democratic divisions.
  • DOJ plans to deploy about 1,000 election monitors, raising civil-rights and voter-privacy concerns.
  • Long-term Treasury yields hit the highest level since 2007, with the 30-year yield above 5.3%.
  • Corporate borrowers are favoring debt maturities of five years or less, expecting higher-for-longer rates.
  • US debt is nearing $40 trillion earlier than expected, with deficits and interest costs pushing bond yields higher.
  • Maya MacGuineas urges deficit reduction as a lasting affordability fix and warns Social Security is about six years from insolvency.
Ideas
Nicole Malliotakis Republican Congresswoman, New York 17:56
US manufacturing benefits from investment surge.
The 2017 tax cuts and follow-on reconciliation policies have generated strong GDP growth and trillions in foreign and private investment expanding US manufacturing facilities; she argues the CBO often underestimates revenue and that the US is rebuilding domestic manufacturing capacity.
Emily Graffeo Anchor, Bloomberg 27:22
Long-term bond yields face upward pressure.
Long-term Treasury yields have surged to the highest since 2007, with the 30-year yield above 5.3%, because bondholders are demanding more compensation to lend to the US government long term and are not confident the Federal Reserve can rein in inflation. The same long-term rate pressure is visible in France, Germany, the UK and Japan, and companies are responding by borrowing at shorter maturities because they expect rates to stay higher for longer.
Maya MacGuineas President, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget 29:29
Rising deficits push Treasury yields higher.
The US fiscal deficit is creating a fight for capital and pushing up bond yields as debt nears $40 trillion. With interest rates likely to exceed growth, rising yields create a debt-spiral risk; the 10-year Treasury is already about 55 basis points above CBO projections, implying about $2 trillion more in interest payments over 10 years, and heavy short-term issuance makes the US more vulnerable to faster rate repricing.
Up Next

This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 18, 2026, features Nicole Malliotakis, Emily Graffeo, Maya MacGuineas discussing US manufacturing sector, 30-Year US Treasury Yield, 10-year US Treasury yield. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Nicole Malliotakis, Emily Graffeo, Maya MacGuineas  · Tickers: US manufacturing sector, 30-Year US Treasury Yield, 10-year US Treasury yield