Art Berman: “Hormuz Is Gone” — The Oil Shock That Changes Everything

Summary

Energy expert Art Berman argues the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed and under Iranian control, marking a structural break in global oil supply. He debunks the myth of U.S. energy independence, highlighting heavy reliance on imported heavy crude, especially from Canada. Berman expects permanently tighter oil markets, higher prices, and significant economic trauma.

• Berman declares Hormuz 'gone,' with tanker traffic near zero and Iran now controlling the chokepoint.
• He dismisses U.S. energy independence as a statistical lie, noting the country imports 6.5 million barrels of oil per day.
• The U.S. refineries are engineered for heavy crude, making Canadian and Middle Eastern oil irreplaceable in the short term.
• Light U.S. oil is exported because refineries cannot fully use it, exposing a mismatch between production and refinery needs.
• The loss of Hormuz is a historic blunder that will structurally raise oil prices and reshape the global economy.
• Berman sees no near-term return to normal Hormuz flows, with 50% normalization possibly only by end-2027 under Iranian terms.