코스피 쏠림, 조정의 빌미 됐다. 미국 D램 레버리지 ETF 승인... 삼성전자·SK하이닉스 풀 매수 신호인가?ㅣ이주연 이사

Summary

Director Lee Ju-yeon analyzes KOSPI's overbought condition and extreme concentration in semiconductors and autos, predicting a short-term pullback to 6900-7100 but reaffirming a long-term uptrend. She highlights the approval of a U.S. DRAM 2x leveraged ETF as a bullish catalyst for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, citing strong inflows and target price upgrades. She also expects KOSDAQ to outperform after earnings season as money rotates into neglected small-cap sectors.

• KOSPI is technically overbought with only two sectors outperforming, suggesting a pullback is likely.
• A new U.S. DRAM 2x leveraged ETF approval is expected to boost capital inflows into Samsung and SK hynix.
• Citi raised SK hynix target to 3.1M won and Samsung to 460K won, reflecting strong earnings momentum.
• Long-term fundamentals for semiconductors remain robust with ASP increases continuing.
• After earnings season, KOSDAQ is expected to be relatively stronger as money rotates into small caps.
• Pharma/biotech, semiconductor equipment, robotics, renewables, and cosmetics are potential beneficiaries.
• Foreign selling is not a major concern as it has been persistent throughout the rally.
• Historical patterns around US-China summit and Fed chair transition suggest near-term volatility.