What is the next warning sign shaking AI investment? | Hong Seon-ae, Kim Han-jin 3PRO TV Economists [Yeouido Insight]

Summary

Economist Kim Han-jin analyzes the macro outlook for Korean equities, emphasizing the resilience of the AI investment cycle and a stable US economy as drivers for a KOSPI recovery into the first half of next year. He explains that the July selloff largely cleared excessive leverage, creating a base, and sees Korean semiconductors leading the rebound. He also discusses bond vigilantes pressuring long-term US yields, US-Japan coordination to stabilize yen and Treasuries, and credit market signals that are not yet alarming. A historical comparison to the 1987 crash reinforces the view that intact fundamentals can overcome temporary systemic shocks.

• AI capex cycle remains robust, supporting Korean exports and KOSPI until H1 2026.
• The leverage-driven selloff has largely cleared, creating a base for recovery.
• Korean semiconductors are key to forming higher lows and leading the market rebound.
• US economy stays resilient with controlled services inflation, reducing urgency for Fed rate hikes.
• Bond vigilantes re-emerge as US fiscal expansion pushes long-term yields higher; 10Y yield at 4.7% is a threshold.
• US-Japan FX cooperation supports yen and helps prevent disorderly US Treasury selling.
• Credit spreads are not alarming, but triple-B bonds are elevated; a further yield rise could pressure AI capex.
• Comparison to 1987 Black Monday suggests fundamentals can override systemic shocks if the AI cycle holds.