Name: AI Cracks: Where Do You Hide?
Uploaded: 2026-06-24T19:35:15+00:00
Duration: 3192 s

Speakers

Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol

Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management

Summary

The hosts discuss cracks in the AI trade, with hyperscaler stocks showing saturation and capital shifting downstream to data center suppliers, memory, and biotech. They argue that crypto assets without revenue are weak, with Bitcoin breaking down technically, and recommend shorting Bitcoin and altcoins while waiting for a Saylor-driven blowup to buy. Avi presents long AI biotech ETFs and short Accenture, while Jonah advocates fading hyperscaler equities. The conversation also touches on 2028 political risks for markets.

NASDAQ volatility and AI trade showing late-inning signs; hyperscaler stocks may be overcooked.
Hyperscaler capex flows downstream: favor what they spend on, avoid their equity/debt.
Memory stocks still under-owned; potential for further upside despite volatility.
AI biotech ETF thesis: AI to revolutionize drug discovery and rerate the sector.
Accenture short as consulting faces AI disruption.
Crypto complex weak: Bitcoin breakdown suggests lower levels, short BTC and WLD.
Saylor's MSTR/STRC structure likely to implode, creating a generational buying opportunity in Bitcoin after crash.
Political risks: 2028 blue wave could shift capital flows, but no immediate trade.

Ideas

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 10:16

Short Accenture on AI consulting disruption

As AI automates knowledge work, traditional consulting services will be less in demand. Accenture is a clear short candidate as a representative of this vulnerable consulting industry.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 10:22

Biotech re-rates on AI drug discovery

AI will radically change the biotech industry by enabling cheaper and faster drug discovery, causing the entire sector to rerate higher. Since picking single stocks is hard, the best way to play this is via diversified biotech ETFs, with a 70/30 split between XBI (broad) and ARCG (high-octane).

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 16:15

Memory stocks still not fully priced in

Memory stocks have run hard but are still not fully saturated; most people have not bought them yet, as evidenced by a 13-year-old's portfolio holding only hyperscalers and no memory names. This suggests the memory trade still has room to run, with Micron as a key pure-play even if it is volatile.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 25:24

Sell hyperscalers as capex shifts downstream

The hyperscalers spent huge on AI capex, driving their stock prices; now cracks are appearing and the AI trade is shifting to downstream suppliers. Therefore, investors should sell the hyperscalers' equity and credit, as they fund this spending, and buy what they are buying. This is a clear capital-flows fade of the over-owned, overextended hyperscaler stocks.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 32:48

Short non-revenue crypto, AI takes capital

Cryptocurrencies that do not generate revenue are cooked because the AI trade offers higher volatility and better narratives, sucking capital away. Bitcoin and Ethereum are specifically broken and should be shorted.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 32:48

Short non-revenue crypto, AI takes capital

Michael Saylor's overextended Bitcoin financing structure (MSTR/STRC) is poorly engineered and likely to implode, forcing selling of Bitcoin and equities. That blowup will create the best long-term buying opportunity in Bitcoin ever, with a price drop to near FTX lows, after which regulatory clarity and the value proposition will drive a massive rally.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 37:11

Short WLD, near highs in downtrend

Worldcoin is oddly trading near its highs of recent weeks while the crypto market is heading lower. This divergence makes it a prime short candidate to play the broad crypto downdraft, targeting a move back to the lows.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 39:42

Long HOOD, short crypto for asymmetry

Robinhood offers asymmetric upside: if crypto does well it will surge, but it can still perform well even if crypto does poorly because it is expanding revenues outside of crypto. Pairing a long in HOOD with a short in crypto captures this asymmetry.

AI Cracks: Where Do You Hide?

Summary

Ideas

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