đź’ĄSi TUVIERA que volver a GANAR 1 MILLĂ“N $ en Bolsa, harĂa ESTO |👉2 Sencillas ESTRATEGIAS para 2026
Speakers
Alejandro Estebaranz
— Crypto YouTuber, El Estebaranz
Summary
Alejandro Estebaranz explains the two strategies he would use to rebuild a million euros in the stock market: passive index investing (which, with indices at demanding valuations, may return only about 3% a year over the next decade) and active management through Alpha Vulture's balance method, combining special-situation workouts with defined returns and undervalued, lesser-known small caps. He walks through recent and current examples such as SmartPay, IPF, DBRG, MLCI, AerCap, BMET and MLG, and argues that AI tools and free sources like Catalyst Bulletin cut research time and narrow the gap versus professionals, especially for investors with little capital. The video promotes the Metodo Alpha course and a live event on January 11, framing education as the best investment.
- Alejandro contrasts passive index investing with taking control of one's own portfolio, arguing that different results require a different approach.
- He cites JP Morgan, Bank of America, Apollo and Invesco: with the S&P 500 at about 24-25x earnings, expected 10-year returns are roughly 3% or lower.
- He presents Alpha Vulture's balance method: workouts with defined returns (15-30% over months, independent of the market) plus undervalued, lesser-known stocks, rebalancing between both sides.
- Workout examples detailed: SmartPay and IPF takeover offers (about 20% potential) and DBRG's firm offer at 16.
- Small-cap cases named: MLCI buyback at a premium, AerCap, BMET and MLG trading cheap versus book value and peers.
- He highlights ChatGPT and the Catalyst Bulletin account as tools to find and screen special situations quickly.
- He argues small investors have an edge in illiquid, low-coverage names, and that the opportunities persist as successful investors outgrow them.
- The video promotes the Metodo Alpha course and a January 11 live session, with disclaimers that nothing is a buy or sell recommendation.
Ideas
S&P 500 expensive; expected returns low.
The S&P 500 and broad indices are very expensive (about 24-25x earnings, with CAPE at historic highs), and research from JP Morgan, Bank of America, Apollo and Invesco points to expected annualized returns of only about +3% at best over the next 10 years, with a range from +2% to -3%, far below the 7-8% investors assume. Indexing can still be a complement for people with a lot of capital or little time, but from these valuations it is unlikely to deliver the returns that let a small investor rebuild wealth, and it gives up the possibility of higher returns.
Lesser-known small caps: private investor edge.
To beat average returns, focus on less-known situations and small companies (roughly below $5bn capitalization, fewer than about 10 analysts, low liquidity), where there is less competition and more mispricing, instead of the expensive and hyper-analyzed large caps. Buffett used the same approach when managing small sums, and the edge persists because successful investors outgrow these situations; private investors also avoid fund constraints such as forced selling for liquidity or redemption reasons.
SmartPay merger arbitrage: about 20% upside.
Workout example: SmartPay entered exclusive negotiations with three interested buyers that offered 1.20 per share while the stock traded around 1.00 (later 1.11), implying about 20% upside in roughly 6 months (over 40% annualized). Daily liquidity of only about 6,000-10,000 euros keeps institutions out but is an advantage for private investors; regulatory risk was low because it is a small company, the buyer (a payments company worth about $7bn) had ample cash and financing, and the offer became firm in June and closed in November at 1.20.
IPF merger arbitrage: about 20% upside.
Workout example from the Catalyst Bulletin list: IPF traded at about 200 pence when an interested party offered 220p and later raised the offer to 235p, while the share price barely moved; the offer was formalized on December 29, giving an opportunity to earn about 20% in 3-6 months (about 70-80% annualized) with low risk because the exit price was known in advance. By the time of the review, most of the re-rating had already happened (only about 4% was left, about 10% annualized).
DBRG firm deal at 16.00.
From the same list of firm offers: DBRG trades at 15.30 against a firm (already agreed, not tentative) offer at 16.00, waiting to close, a small spread workout whose return depends on the deal closing rather than on the market.
MLCI buyback premium; cheap alt manager.
Current special situation flagged as very interesting: MLCI (Montal Capital), a little-followed alternative asset manager with about 100M market cap, listed around 8 and trading around 8.20, has offered to buy back shares at 9.40-9.43 while insiders, who see more long-term value, will not tender. It trades below book value (about 10, implying about 25% upside) and at about 9x earnings versus 28-30x for KKR, Brookfield, Apollo, Ares and Blackstone; commissions grew from about 1.2M in 2021 to about 10M, and the private capital sector it serves is expected to grow from 4 trillion to 13 trillion dollars.
AerCap still cheap; funds still hold.
Aircraft lessor AerCap is a still-held example of mispricing in less-known names: in 2020 the market priced a bankruptcy and the stock fell from about $60 to $17 (the fund accumulated around 20 and lower); it kept generating cash flow, its airline clients kept paying (governments backstopped national airlines) and it held over $1bn of cash and liquidity, so the feared outcome never materialized. It has since gone from about $15 to $140 and still trades at only about 10x earnings versus about 23x for the S&P 500.
BMET cheap healthcare; multiple re-rated.
Another Alpha Vulture operation: BMET, a Canadian-listed small healthcare company (under 100M market cap), was bought at a very low price, growing about 20% per year, with almost no debt and at about 7x earnings versus about 30x for peers, with revenue growth of 50%/39%/23% and high margins. The multiple quickly re-rated and the stock went from $2 to $7 in about 12 months, the second leg of the balance method: undervalued, under-followed companies.
MLG cheap; growth without client churn.
Recent school case presented as very interesting: MLG, an Australian mining-services company (about 130-160M market cap, trading near its IPO price), moves material for gold miners (Newmont, Rio Tinto, First Quantum, BHP among its clients) and is paid per volume moved, so it does not depend on the gold price; revenue grew from 130M in 2018 to 540M (about 32% CAGR) even as Australian gold output volume declined, and it has never lost a client. It trades at about 7x earnings and below book value (market about 0.87 versus about 1.20 liquidation), a mispricing driven by low analyst coverage and little competition.
Up Next
This El Arte de Invertir video, published January 04, 2026, features Alejandro Estebaranz discussing SPY, IWM, SmartPay, IPF.L, DBRG, MLCI, AER, BMET.TO, MLG.AX. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Alejandro Estebaranz · Tickers: SPY, IWM, SmartPay, IPF.L, DBRG, MLCI, AER, BMET.TO, MLG.AX