Tesla Is Finally Toppled by BYD as EV King
Summary
BYD overtook Tesla in 2025 global battery-electric vehicle sales, selling 2.26 million BEVs versus Tesla's 1.64 million. Tesla's deliveries declined for a second straight year amid rolled-back US EV incentives and signs that Elon Musk's political activity weighed on demand. BYD is expanding outside China and still does not sell in the US, but faces pared-back Chinese incentives and brutal competition. Wall Street is more cautious on Tesla's growth, shifting the Tesla story toward robotaxi, ride hailing, and humanoid robotics.
- BYD sold 2.26 million BEVs in 2025, topping Tesla's 1.64 million.
- Tesla deliveries fell for a second consecutive year despite refreshed Model Y and Model 3 vehicles.
- US federal EV incentives were rolled back and Musk's political activity may have hurt demand.
- BYD's non-China deliveries reached 1.05 million; total deliveries including hybrids were 4.6 million.
- BYD still has no US car sales, leaving potential expansion runway.
- China EV incentives are being pared back and competition from Geely, Xpeng and NIO is brutal.
- Wall Street is more cautious on Tesla's growth, focusing on robotaxi, ride hailing, and humanoid robotics.
- Shareholders may lack patience for Tesla's lofty future bets.
Ideas
BYD leads EVs but China risks remain.
BYD overtook Tesla in 2025 global battery-EV sales with 2.26 million units and is expanding globally: deliveries outside China reached 1.05 million and total vehicle deliveries, including hybrids, hit 4.6 million. It still does not sell cars in the US, leaving a large potential runway, though China EV incentives are being pared back and competition from Geely, Xpeng and NIO is brutal.
Tesla growth slowing; future bets look speculative.
Tesla's EV growth is deteriorating: 2025 deliveries fell for a second consecutive year despite expectations for a refreshed and cheaper Model Y and Model 3, US federal EV incentives were rolled back, and Musk's political activity appears to have weighed on global demand. Wall Street is now more cautious on Tesla's growth, so the equity story depends increasingly on robotaxi, proprietary ride hailing, and humanoid robotics—lofty goals that some shareholders may not have patience for.
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