Can the War End? Why Trump Is in a Hurry | Professors Sung Il-kwang and Park Hyun-do, Sogang University Euro-MENA Institute
Can the War End?" Why Trump is in a Hurry | Professors Sung Il-kwang and Park Hyun-do, Sogang University Euro-MENA Institute [Dialogue with God]
Speakers
Sung Il-kwang
— Professor, Sogang University Euro-MENA Institute
Yeo Do
— Host
Park Hyun-do
— Professor, Sogang University Euromena Research Institute
Summary
The professors discuss the sudden reports of a US-Iran ceasefire and are largely skeptical. They argue Iran has little reason to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without major US concessions and can keep oil elevated as leverage before US midterms. The most likely scenarios are ceasefire talks breaking down or later Iranian escalation, while a real ceasefire remains difficult.
- Reported US-Iran ceasefire via Russian and Saudi sources caused oil prices to fall.
- Both professors doubt the ceasefire reports partly because Israeli media are not covering them.
- Iran is seen as the side with more leverage and is unlikely to fully open Hormuz without large US concessions.
- Oil prices may remain elevated in a $90-$130 range as Iran seeks leverage, with current WTI near $80.
- The most likely scenarios are breakdown of ceasefire talks or later Iranian escalation.
- Hormuz transit tolls and US secondary sanctions could raise shipping and fuel costs and pressure Korea.
Ideas
Ceasefire doubts support higher oil prices
The reported US-Iran ceasefire and Hormuz reopening is likely premature. Iran has little incentive to open the Strait of Hormuz near $80 WTI without major US concessions; Iran can use Hormuz and further attacks to push crude back into a $90-$130 range as leverage before US midterms, so WTI/Brent are biased higher from current levels.
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