Emergency Interview: CXMT, DUV Counterattack... Is Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix Really in Crisis? The Real Reason for the Stock Plunge

Summary

Noh Geun-chang, Head of Research Center at Hyundai Motor Securities, addresses the recent sharp decline in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares. He dismisses fears over CXMT's listing, China's DUV development, and Kioxia's earnings miss as overblown. He argues that the memory market remains in a strong upcycle driven by AI, with supply tightness and long-term contracts supporting earnings growth through 2028. He highlights extremely low valuations compared to TSMC and suggests that share buybacks and insider purchases could help restore investor confidence, viewing the selloff as a buying opportunity.

• CXMT's expansion is constrained by US equipment sanctions and blacklist, limiting its threat to Korean memory leaders.
• China's DUV self-development claims are unverified and unlikely to materialize commercially for years.
• NAND market faces no significant price decline as greenfield fabs are absent and AI data center demand sustains SSD usage.
• Semiconductor equipment supply is tight due to record capital spending by TSMC and memory firms, with Korean and Taiwanese fabs dominating equipment purchases.
• Samsung and SK Hynix operating profits are expected to keep rising until 2028, backed by long-term contracts and premium product shifts.
• Recent stock plunges are driven by supply/demand factors, not fundamentals, with valuations (PBR ~1x) far below TSMC's 10x PBR.
• Insider buying and potential shareholder return policies could serve as catalysts for a re-rating.