Korean Black Monday Incident, How Much Will It Rebound From Now On?

Summary

Executive Director Park Se-ik analyzes Korea's 'Black Monday' crash that sent KOSPI to 5200 amid panic sparked by Chinese chip fears. He argues the market has bottomed, fair value is near 7500, and rebound is supported by foreign buying and options positioning. He also highlights key volume resistance at 8000-8300 and expects Korean semiconductors to recover.

• KOSPI crashed to 5200 with two circuit breakers, comparable to a Black Monday event.
• The selloff was driven by CXMT listing and Apple's request to use Chinese chips, not a semicon cycle downturn.
• US Senate blocked Apple's use of Chinese chips, reviving sentiment.
• Park Se-ik sees 5200 as a bottom and fair value for KOSPI around 7500 based on earnings.
• Foreign investors sold heavily above 7200 and started buying near 5200, supporting the low.
• 8000-8300 is a key volume resistance zone that must be broken for a larger rally.
• Global fund managers are forced to buy CXMT due to captive market mandates.
• Foreign options players hold large call positions, signaling near-term upside before a likely switch to range-bound strategies.