Ideas
US housing remains dead.
Quinn argues the US housing market is effectively dead: mortgage rates are back at highs, and even if rates eventually fall, inflation and supply problems limit the refinancing boost. With few remaining policy levers, housing may need to get worse before it gets better.
Europe must debase like Japan.
Europe today resembles Japan in 2012: aging demographics, an adverse terms-of-trade shock from China, and a productivity-led growth model that is unlikely to repair itself. Vincent expects Europe to follow a Japan-style currency debasement until tax collections grow faster than social spending. He recommends expressing this through short EUR/JPY, with short EUR/USD and short EUR/BRL added to improve carry, and sees catalysts in French/German political crises and eventual ECB monetization.
French government bonds look unattractive.
France's debt dynamics are much shakier than Japan's because growth is near zero while borrowing costs are around 4% and rising, with large unfunded pension liabilities. A French political crisis could force ECB monetization and further euro debasement, making French government bonds unattractive.
Higher-for-longer commodities and energy.
Felix believes commodity prices and energy will stay higher for longer, which is a disadvantage for Europe and reinforces the stagflationary backdrop.
Euro debasement lifts euro gold.
A Europe-follows-Japan debasement path should lift gold priced in euros, analogous to the large rise in gold priced in yen since 2012. Vincent explicitly agrees he is bullish gold in euro terms as a hedge against euro devaluation.
Bullish gold on policy mistakes.
Felix remains bullish gold even though he expects a stronger dollar, because countries are hiking into an energy shock and policy mistakes are likely, which should support gold as a hedge.
US dollar pressure remains upward.
Felix leans toward a higher US dollar because the dollar chart looks coiled, the US is advantaged in energy and AI, and big capital flows still favor the US. He notes that historical slowdowns often create upward dollar pressure rather than dollar weakness.
Hated, cheap UK equities mean revert.
The UK is his contrarian long: sentiment is extremely negative, private defined-benefit pension funds have cut UK equity allocations from about 50% to 5% so forced selling is largely exhausted, the index is cheap and dominated by energy, healthcare, and financials, and the UK has more policy flexibility than the EU because it has its own central bank. Brexit also means the UK is further along in the political/economic reset that Europe may now face.
Canada investment revival underway.
Felix is constructive on Canada under Carney: he sees a pragmatic mix of fiscal conservatism and social liberalism, renewed foreign capital investment, natural resource strength, pension funds moving away from ESG mandates, bipartisan alignment, fiscal capacity, and a strategic hedge away from US dependence. He thinks this shift can outlast Trump and supports Canadian assets.
Long CAD against euro.
Vincent says he would add a long CAD position to his short EUR trade. The Canada discussion supports this through renewed foreign capital investment, natural resource exposure, fiscal capacity, and a bipartisan policy shift under Carney that could make Canada a relative winner as it hedges away from US dependence.
This Forward Guidance video, published September 18, 2026,
features Quinn Thompson, vincentdeluard, Felix Jauvin
discussing US Housing, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, EUR/BRL, OAT, DBC, XLE, Gold priced in EUR, GLD, USD, EWU, EWC, CAD.
10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Quinn Thompson,
vincentdeluard,
Felix Jauvin
· Tickers:
US Housing,
EUR/JPY,
EUR/USD,
EUR/BRL,
OAT,
DBC,
XLE,
Gold priced in EUR,
GLD,
USD,
EWU,
EWC,
CAD
