What to look for in US stocks, 5 criteria for portfolio management
미국 주식은 무엇을 봐야 할까, 포트폴리오 운용 5가지 기준 | 체슬리투자자문 최일호 부사장
Speakers
Choi Ho
— Vice President
Summary
Choi Ho (Vice President, Chesley Investment Advisory) presents five personal criteria for US stock portfolio management: depth of research, selection and concentration, position sizing, trend following, and acting on 40–70% conviction. He then analyzes Q1 GDP showing AI capex as the main growth driver, and highlights the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index as the top-performing sector. He also discusses Palantir's upcoming earnings as a pivotal event for AI software sentiment.
- Five portfolio management criteria for US stocks are introduced: depth, concentration, sizing, trend, and partial conviction.
- Q1 US GDP growth of 2% was driven by private investment (+8.7%), largely AI capex.
- Big Tech capex guidance for 2026-2028 has been upgraded significantly.
- Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 38.4% in April and 49.6% year-to-date.
- Palantir's Q1 earnings and Q2 guidance are key to AI software sentiment.
- The speaker advises ignoring FX headwinds given US growth outperformance.
- Energy and materials sectors have also outperformed year-to-date.
- The overall S&P 500 forward P/E of 20.8x is not excessive given strong earnings momentum.
Trade Ideas
Bullish on Philadelphia Semiconductor Index
AI capex is being revised up sharply across 2026-2028, confirming that the semiconductor and AI infrastructure investment theme remains valid. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has been the strongest performer in April (+38.4%) and year-to-date (+49.6%), and the speaker explicitly states that even just investing in the semiconductor index alone would avoid being left behind in this bull market. The direction of AI capex, driven by Big Tech, supports continued leadership for semiconductor stocks.
Palantir Q2 guidance key for AI software
Palantir (PLTR) is a key AI software play. Q1 revenue growth is expected at 73.9% and operating margin ~57%, but the market conservatively forecasts deceleration in Q2. The speaker stresses that Q2 guidance will determine the overall sentiment for AI software. If Palantir beats or guides higher, it could be a positive catalyst for the AI software sector. The stock has underperformed this year, making the earnings event especially important.
Up Next
This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published May 12, 2026, features Choi Ho discussing SOXX, PLTR. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.