LULA X FLÁVIO, GUERRA NO IRÃ, CASO MASTER E OS 37 AUMENTOS DE IMPOSTOS NO BRASIL | Risco Brasil #38

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 11, 2026 at 23:05  |  1:40:51  |  Market Makers
Speakers
Fernando Ulrich — Financial Commentator, Independent
Thiago Salomão — CEO Marketmakers

Summary

The episode discusses Brazil's paradoxical situation of a strong currency and rising stock market alongside political uncertainty, fiscal stress, and tax increases. Guests also analyze the AI capex bubble, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on oil, and the upcoming presidential election. The conversation highlights risks for investors in Brazilian assets and global tech.

  • Brazil's real is one of the best-performing currencies in 2026 despite fiscal concerns.
  • Ibovespa hit 200,000 points but then lost 20,000 quickly.
  • Domestic investors are pulling money out of equities, while foreigners have been buying.
  • The presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is very tight.
  • The Banco Master scandal is shaking the centrão and may have electoral implications.
  • AI-related capex by US tech giants could approach $1 trillion this year, fueling a valuation bubble in semiconductors.
  • The Strait of Hormuz closure is disrupting oil supply, but markets remain complacent.
  • Brazil's fiscal framework is seen as a temporary bridge loan, not a sustainable solution.
Trade Ideas
Thiago Salomão CEO Marketmakers 24:55
Oil prices likely to spike higher
The oil market is complacent despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for nearly two months. Strategic reserves are being drawn down rapidly, and if the war continues, prices could spike significantly as supply tightens further.
CL MED
Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 28:03
Semiconductor rally unsustainable, reducing exposure
The semiconductor sector (Intel, Micron, AMD, and the sector ETF) has experienced a parabolic rally in recent weeks, with valuations disconnected from underlying business economics. ROI on massive AI capex is uncertain, and the risk/reward is increasingly unfavorable. I am reducing my position.
SMH INTC MU AMD HIGH
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This Market Makers video, published May 11, 2026, features Thiago Salomão, Fernando Ulrich discussing CL, SMH, INTC, MU, AMD. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Thiago Salomão, Fernando Ulrich  · Tickers: CL, SMH, INTC, MU, AMD