US-Iran Deal Takes Effect; Futures Rally, Oil Slides | Horizons Middle East & Africa 6/18/2026

Summary

The episode covers the market impact of the US-Iran interim deal, which sent oil prices lower and lifted equities. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady in a hawkish debut that surprised with nine members projecting hikes and a review of Fed operations. The show also discusses the AI capex trade, SpaceX skepticism, GCC fixed income opportunities, and South Africa's softer-than-expected inflation print.

• Trump signs interim US-Iran deal to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz; oil falls, equity futures rise.
• Fed Chair Warsh delivers a hawkish hold, scraps forward guidance, and announces five task forces; short-end yields and hike bets surge.
• Aldhabi Capital prefers AI 'picks and shovels' (memory, optics, data center power) over AI developers like SpaceX's AI unit.
• Aldhabi Capital avoided the SpaceX IPO on valuation concerns and wants to see more financials before considering AI pure-plays.
• Arqaam Capital sees Middle East fixed income returning 6.5–7% over 12 months as rates decline, with credit spreads already tight.
• South African CPI rose less than expected (4.5% vs 4.7-4.8% forecast); rate hike delayed to September/November, rand seen sideways.
• Trump administration pushes to stabilize Libya and unlock oil output to 2 million bpd, attracting Chevron and Exxon interest.