Trump Signs US-Iran Deal, Warsh Fuels Fed Rate Hike Bets | Daybreak Europe 6/18/2026

Summary

The US-Iran peace deal takes effect, sending oil prices lower. The Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh holds rates but signals a hawkish tilt with growing support for a hike, lifting bond yields and volatility expectations. Tech and AI semiconductor stocks continue to outperform, while European and Asian markets react to the policy mix. UK politics and the Bank of England decision also dominate the session.

• Trump signs interim US-Iran deal; Strait of Hormuz reopening expected, Brent falls below $80.
• Fed's Warsh holds rates but dot plot shows nine officials see hikes this year; market prices in October hike.
• AI and semiconductor supply chain stocks rally as growth names overcome rate fears; Nasdaq futures up over 1%.
• Anthony Stephens highlights Asian chip leaders Samsung, SK hynix, Tokyo Electron, and European tech set-ups.
• Ven Ram sees a Fed regime change that ends market handholding and lifts volatility.
• UK special election and BOE decision in focus; Badenoch pledges to scrap energy profits levy to revive North Sea oil.
• ECB seen ahead of the curve, euro weakens as Fed divergence widens.
• VivaTech conference: Macron seeks AI access for allies, quantum computing CEO discusses cat qubit scalability.