The Global Election Wave That Could Move Markets

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 27, 2026 at 15:30  |  4:36  |  Morgan Stanley
Speakers
Monica Guerra — Head of Policy, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Summary

Monica Aguero discusses how the 2026 global election cycle (US, Japan, Latin America, Israel) creates policy shifts and market opportunities. Key takeaways include gridlock benefiting US equities, national security boosting defense/energy/critical minerals, a potential market-friendly shift in Brazil, and resilience in Israeli equities. Geopolitics is becoming a bigger market driver, and a long-term perspective is critical.

  • 2026 US midterms likely to produce gridlock, historically positive for markets.
  • National security supports demand in defense, energy, and critical minerals.
  • Brazil's election could lead to market-oriented reforms supporting equities.
  • Israeli equities have performed well despite conflict, with potential further growth.
  • Japan's election gives mandate for growth but brings risks from higher yields and weaker yen.
  • Latin American elections in Colombia and Peru are at policy crossroads.
  • Geopolitical uncertainty is elevated but can highlight emerging trends.
  • Long-term perspective is critical in volatile markets.
Ideas
Monica Guerra Head of Policy, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management 1:40
Gridlock is positive for US equities.
Markets historically outperform during periods of congressional gridlock, and the 2026 midterms are likely to produce a split Congress, raising the odds of gridlock, which is positive for equities despite potential volatility from executive actions.
VTI MED
Monica Guerra Head of Policy, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management 1:55
National security supports defense, energy, minerals.
National security priorities will continue to support demand in defense, energy, and critical minerals sectors, making them attractive investment areas amid rising protectionism and evolving alliances.
XLE REMX ITA MED
Monica Guerra Head of Policy, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management 2:54
Brazil election could boost equities.
Brazil's 2026 election could produce a market-oriented shift that supports equities and lowers rates through fiscal reform and deregulation, making it a key event to watch for potential bullish opportunities.
EWZ MED
Monica Guerra Head of Policy, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management 3:38
Israeli equities may continue to grow.
Israeli equities, particularly in defense and technology, have performed well despite ongoing geopolitical volatility, and continued US alignment and regional cooperation could support further growth.
EIS MED
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This Morgan Stanley video, published April 27, 2026, features Monica Guerra discussing VTI, XLE, REMX, ITA, EWZ, EIS. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Monica Guerra  · Tickers: VTI, XLE, REMX, ITA, EWZ, EIS