Calls
9
#830
Alpha Score 35.8
Monica Guerra
Head of Policy, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Win Rate
44.4%
return
-0.2%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Apr 27
$215.09
+4.8%
National security priorities will continue to support demand in defense, energy, and critical minerals sectors, making them attractive investment areas amid rising protectionism and evolving alliances.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Aug 06
$770.47
-0.7%
Historically, the S&P 500 performs well in the 12 months after midterm elections, averaging a 13% gain, and a 23% gain under a Republican president with split Congress. Markets tend to respond well once policy uncertainty clears, so the more important opportunity may emerge after Election Day.
Equity Indexes
Long
Aug 06
$57.91
-0.3%
Divided government creates a more stable backdrop for financial services. Financial institutions could benefit from greater regulatory clarity, more flexible capital requirements, and a potentially more supportive environment for mergers and acquisitions.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Aug 06
$186.22
-1.4%
Divided government limits sweeping legislation, creating a stable backdrop for technology. The sector should continue to benefit from long-term investment in AI, semiconductors, enterprise software, and cybersecurity, despite state-level regulatory patchworks.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Apr 27
$98.25
-22.3%
National security priorities will continue to support demand in defense, energy, and critical minerals sectors, making them attractive investment areas amid rising protectionism and evolving alliances.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Apr 27
$351.73
+7.2%
Markets historically outperform during periods of congressional gridlock, and the 2026 midterms are likely to produce a split Congress, raising the odds of gridlock, which is positive for equities despite potential volatility from executive actions.
Equity Indexes
Long
Apr 27
$57.00
+14.2%
National security priorities will continue to support demand in defense, energy, and critical minerals sectors, making them attractive investment areas amid rising protectionism and evolving alliances.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Feb 12
$89.21
-4.0%
Tax refunds are expected to be 40% higher than last year. Unlike previous stimulus, consumers are using this cash to pay down debt and stock up on essentials (Staples), not for discretionary splurges. LONG Staples as the beneficiary of the tax refund cycle. Consumers feel wealthier than expected and pivot back to discretionary spending.
Tax refunds are expected to be 40% higher than last year. Unlike previous stimulus, consumers are using this cash to pay down debt and stock up on essentials (Staples), not for discretionary splurges. LONG Staples as the beneficiary of the tax refund cycle. Consumers feel wealthier than expected and pivot back to discretionary spending.
Thematic ETFs
Short
Feb 12
$116.13
+0.9%
Guerra identifies Discretionary as the "Loser" of the current spending cycle. The "K-Shaped" economy means the middle/lower class is squeezed. Any incoming cash (refunds) fills holes in balance sheets rather than funding travel or luxury goods. SHORT Discretionary retail exposed to middle/low-income consumers. High-income spending remains strong enough to buoy the sector averages.
Guerra identifies Discretionary as the "Loser" of the current spending cycle. The "K-Shaped" economy means the middle/lower class is squeezed. Any incoming cash (refunds) fills holes in balance sheets rather than funding travel or luxury goods. SHORT Discretionary retail exposed to middle/low-income consumers. High-income spending remains strong enough to buoy the sector averages.
Thematic ETFs
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Monica Guerra has 9 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 9 tickers since February 2026. Ranked #830 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: ITA, XLF, REMX.
