Ideas
Tom Lee
Managing Partner & Head of Research, Fundstrat
6:23
Fed hike could spark broad rally
The Fed is expected to hike 25bp, but that hike is widely priced and may mark the end of future hikes. With pessimism high, earnings in good shape, and companies adapting to macro shocks, a large relief rally is likely once the Fed decision passes.
AI capex drives multi-year tech bull
The US is ahead of China in tech for the first time in decades, AI capex is enormous, and every dollar of capex creates a five-to-six dollar multiplier across tech. Investors are underestimating earnings by 25%-30%, and this remains a young multi-year tech bull market led by the AI buildout.
Chip demand outstrips supply until 2029
Chip demand is 13 times supply, and true equilibrium may not arrive until 2029. The US semiconductor industry is two to three years ahead of China, and the capex surge supports semis as a core AI winner.
Micron benefits from tight memory demand
Memory stocks are front and center in the AI/chip cycle. Micron and memory peers should continue proving out the demand story quarter by quarter within a multi-year tech bull market.
Tom Lee
Managing Partner & Head of Research, Fundstrat
30:49
Nvidia undervalued with rerating potential
Nvidia trades at about 16x earnings while Costco and Walmart trade at much higher multiples. It has a large ecosystem advantage similar to Apple's App Store, and the market may eventually rerate it upward; institutional investors remain underweight AI.
Tom Lee
Managing Partner & Head of Research, Fundstrat
31:43
Institutions underown AI structural story
Many fund managers have underweight or zero AI exposure because they wrongly call it a bubble, but AI is a structural story. Institutions and family offices still have significant room to increase AI exposure.
Software stocks benefit from AI adoption
The narrative that AI would wipe out key software names was overblown. Software is a downstream beneficiary of AI as use cases emerge, and investors are recognizing this after the SaaS drawdown.
Adobe and Intuit face AI disruption
Unlike ServiceNow and Salesforce, Adobe and Intuit do have structural issues from AI disruption. The AI threat is not uniform, and these names are more vulnerable than the broader software group.
Cybersecurity oversold on AI fears
AI/cyber fears hit cybersecurity stocks hard, but the narrative was overdone. The space has rebounded, with CrowdStrike as an example, and these companies remain beneficiaries of AI spending.
Tom Lee
Managing Partner & Head of Research, Fundstrat
36:30
Robotics creates productivity without inflation
Robotics could be a huge economic multiplier by adding a third productive output unit that does not consume people or capital. That could allow faster non-inflationary GDP growth, help solve deficits, and even rejuvenate Japan.
Physical AI is biggest capex opportunity
Physical AI and autonomous technology may be the golden goose and could generate a larger capex wave than anything seen so far. It is one of the biggest technology innovations ahead.
Tesla and SpaceX merger likely
Tesla and SpaceX are key ways to play robots and physical AI; Dan sees over an 80% chance they merge by the end of next year, which would create the world's biggest company. Tesla is the public expression of that vision.
Tom Lee
Managing Partner & Head of Research, Fundstrat
43:04
Financials should rerate like tech stocks
The financial services industry is a major AI/tech beneficiary. Robots and micro-payments require new blockchain-based infrastructure, and the best financial companies could be valued more like tech companies as earnings visibility improves.
Tom Lee
Managing Partner & Head of Research, Fundstrat
44:16
JPMorgan deserves higher visibility multiple
JPMorgan already knows roughly 70% of its earnings at the start of the year without opening a branch, a visibility profile more like a tech or membership company. Such high-visibility financials deserve tech-like multiples.
Utilities and energy benefit from AI
The AI buildout is still in early stages and will require massive power and energy infrastructure. Utility and energy companies are underappreciated beneficiaries of the innovation boom.
US innovation boom broadens market gains
The AI-driven innovation boom in the US is underappreciated and should spread beyond a handful of tech companies across the broader market and job creation.
Apple controls consumer AI access
About 20% of the world will access AI through an Apple device. Apple's install base and consumer AI monetization opportunity are underappreciated, and AI-enabled devices should keep it front and center.
Legacy tech hardware has durable moats
Legacy hardware box makers such as Cisco and Dell, plus old-line tech like Corning, have embedded customer bases, real estate, and moats that last far longer than a 12-month horizon. They can keep rejuvenating and are difficult for new entrants to displace.
Palantir can grow four-to-five-fold
Palantir's technology is underappreciated, especially as it moves from government into enterprise and changes enterprise sales cycles. Free cash flow is underestimated and the stock could appreciate four-to-five-fold over the next three-to-four years, potentially becoming a trillion-dollar company.
This The Compound News video, published September 18, 2026,
features Tom Lee, Dan Ives
discussing SPY, XLK, SMH, MU, NVDA, AI-SECTOR, IGV, ADBE, INTU, CIBR, CRWD, ROBO, Physical AI, TSLA, XLF, JPM, UTILITIES, XLE, AAPL, CSCO, DELL, GLW, PLTR.
19 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Tom Lee,
Dan Ives
· Tickers:
SPY,
XLK,
SMH,
MU,
NVDA,
AI-SECTOR,
IGV,
ADBE,
INTU,
CIBR,
CRWD,
ROBO,
Physical AI,
TSLA,
XLF,
JPM,
UTILITIES,
XLE,
AAPL,
CSCO,
DELL,
GLW,
PLTR
