Expert: 'Cannot Imagine' Iran Would Concede Nuclear Program in Deal with US

Summary

• Expresses deep skepticism that the Islamic Republic of Iran would ever concede its nuclear or ballistic missile programs in a deal with the US, framing such concessions as existential threats to the regime's identity.
• Notes that while a US diplomatic plan (the "15 plan") was initially rejected, Iranian officials are now examining it for potential middle ground, but no direct or indirect talks are currently underway.
• Highlights a severe, month-long internet shutdown in Iran, making reliable polling impossible; information is limited to landlines and an estimated 50-60,000 Starlink terminals.
• Describes the dominant mood inside Iran as a mix of hope (for regime change and democratic transition) and fear (of civilian casualties and brutal regime retaliation if it survives).
• Argues the war has resulted in a more hardline Iranian leadership, replacing killed officials, making compromise even less likely.
• States that a US-Iran deal is impossible without Israel's agreement, and that US and Israeli goals diverge: the US may accept regime change (new leadership), while Israel desires regime collapse.
• Characterizes the current outcome of US policy as creating a "North Korea"-like scenario: a more hardline, repressive Iran that, if able, would pursue a nuclear weapon as a deterrent.
• Assesses that regional actors like Saudi Arabia are unlikely to enter the conflict directly but are reassessing their diplomacy, feeling "slighted" by Iran's recent aggression after the 2023 China-brokered detente.