Name: These Foreign Markets Are Crushing US Stocks | Jack & Max
Uploaded: 2026-01-07T20:30:20+00:00
Duration: 2772 s

Speakers

Max Wiethe — Co-host, Other People's Money

Jack Farley — Host, Monetary Matters

Summary

Jack Farley and Max Wiethe review 2025 markets, arguing that while US assets performed well and attracted record foreign capital, many foreign markets, especially South Korea, China, Europe, and Japan, outperformed. They discuss the global bull market, AI and semiconductor strength, precious metals, speculative excess in quantum stocks, and 2026 risks such as private credit, a US hard landing, tariffs, and geopolitics. The conversation concludes with macro trade ideas including lower-rate beneficiaries like BDCs/mREITs and a potential yield-curve steepener.

US assets rose and attracted record foreign flows in 2025, but many foreign markets outperformed.
South Korea and China led global equity gains, with memory and broad Chinese breadth cited as drivers.
AI and semiconductor strength continued, while quantum-computing stocks were seen as speculative.
Precious metals, especially silver and gold, had strong years; streamers were favored over miners.
Investors' top 2026 risks included AI valuations, private credit, and Fed credibility.
Jack argued a US hard landing is underpriced, while tariffs had less market impact than feared.
Falling rates were seen benefiting BDCs, agency MBS, and mREITs.
Geopolitical focus shifted toward Venezuela, with oil services and Venezuelan bonds mentioned from another interview.

Ideas

Max Wiethe Co-host, Other People's Money 3:18

Global bull market extends beyond US

In 2025, US assets did well but underperformed many foreign markets; the All Country World Index beat the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, EM rose 34%, Europe 35.6%, and Japan 25.8%, so the bull market was global/ex-US rather than US-only.

Jack Farley Host, Monetary Matters 9:05

China has broad underowned bull market

China had 81 companies over $5bn up more than 100% in 2025, MCHI rose 31%, and MSCI China underrepresents the breadth because it includes old laggards; active managers may do even better, while Western investors are underallocated after a decade of poor returns.

Jack Farley Host, Monetary Matters 10:10

South Korea, SK Hynix memory shortage

South Korea was the best-performing major market because its largest weighting, SK Hynix, and other memory companies are up 300-400% on the HBM/memory shortage; shortages can eventually create gluts and these stocks may come back to earth, but that moment is not now.

Jack Farley Host, Monetary Matters 10:56

AI semiconductor boom continues near term

The AI trade is not over; it is a highly procyclical boom that will eventually bust, but likely only mid-to-late innings. If OpenAI can raise capital, spending on Nvidia chips and the ecosystem continues, benefiting semis, electricity suppliers, and Asian component makers; Jack has been bullish on semis and sees a secular trend with higher confidence.

Jack Farley Host, Monetary Matters 13:25

IPPs benefit from data center power

Utilities now include a risk-on AI electricity trade because independent power producers are less regulated and can sell electricity at high rates to data centers; Vistra and Constellation Energy have surged on this dynamic.

Jack Farley Host, Monetary Matters 16:52

Short speculative quantum computing stocks

Quantum computing stocks are speculative late-cycle froth: little to no revenue, no near-term commercial use besides potentially hacking Bitcoin, and even long-term revenue doubts. Jack is short some quantum names in very small size and long real semiconductor names, seeing it as healthy when real stocks rise and speculative ones fall.

Jack Farley Host, Monetary Matters 22:48

Bullish on gold and silver

Jack remains bullish on silver and gold; silver has a physical shortage and procyclical demand, industrial/AI/solar uses, and inelastic byproduct supply; demand destruction may not begin until $125, and precious metals have strong procyclical momentum.

Jack Farley Host, Monetary Matters 22:54

Precious metal streamers safer than miners

Precious metal streaming companies are a safer way to play gold and silver than miners; they have very low costs and high margins and would survive even if silver fell 60%, whereas miners face cost inflation risk.

Jack Farley Host, Monetary Matters 30:28

Private credit risk, timing uncertain

Private credit is a key 2026 risk given First Brands and other blowups, and investor surveys rank a private-credit crisis high; however, the reckoning has no clear timing and can be kicked down the road, so it is a monitorable risk rather than an immediate short.

Max Wiethe Co-host, Other People's Money 43:02

Yield curve likely steepens

With a new Fed chair likely to push rates lower, front-end yields may fall, but the long end may not react well, making a yield-curve steepener an interesting macro trade.

Jack Farley Host, Monetary Matters 43:50

Lower rates benefit BDCs and mREITs

Falling interest rates should benefit BDCs, agency MBS, and mREITs; BDCs borrow and hold floating-rate products while mREITs hold mostly fixed-rate products, so rate cuts support their leverage economics.

These Foreign Markets Are Crushing US Stocks | Jack & Max

Summary

Ideas

Up Next