Is the US Set to Strike Iran?

Summary

Karim Sadjadpour says it is too soon to tell whether the US will strike Iran, but the US strategy resembles the Venezuela pressure campaign and could include an economic or naval blockade targeting Iran's oil exports. He assesses that Iran's nuclear program has not been meaningfully rebuilt, though its enriched uranium stockpile remains unlocated. He also discusses the Board of Peace, Iran's dependence on Russia and China, and Gulf states' cautious public posture.

• Karim Sadjadpour says a US strike on Iran is not decided, but the strategy resembles Venezuela.
• Potential US economic or naval blockade would target Iran's oil exports, a key economic lifeline.
• Iran's nuclear sites are largely destroyed, and its enriched uranium stockpile location is unclear.
• Israeli and likely US intelligence penetration deters Iran from a nuclear breakout dash.
• Iran relies on Russia and China; 90% of its oil exports go to China.
• A US naval blockade would create tension with China; Russia wants Iran's regime to survive.
• Gulf states publicly warn against military action but privately may tolerate Iran being weakened.
• Trump's Board of Peace is aimed at Israeli-Palestinian issues but could be expanded globally.