Checking the Two Major Risks in the US Market | Professor Lee Nam-woo, Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies

미국 시장 2대 리스크 점검 | 이남우 연세대학교 국제대학원 교수 [글로벌 인터뷰]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 15, 2026 at 22:48  |  34:49  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Lee Nam-woo — Professor, Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies

Summary

In this global interview, Professor Lee Nam-woo of Yonsei University discusses the two major risks facing the US market: the erosion of Federal Reserve independence and the shift of US Big Tech from asset-light to capital-intensive AI investment models. He also examines five key risks for Tesla and Alphabet, recommends buying TSMC on dips, and advocates long-term investing in US equities with diversification. The host and guest also touch on semiconductor and memory rebounds, Korean governance reform, and risk-management principles.

  • Professor Lee Nam-woo identifies Fed independence and Big Tech capex shift as major US market risks.
  • He warns that Fed independence erosion could raise risk premiums and compress market valuations.
  • He says US Big Tech may face valuation discounts as AI capex turns them capital-intensive.
  • He lists five risks each for Tesla and Alphabet, including valuation, competition, and regulatory risks.
  • He recommends buying TSMC on dips due to strong earnings and raised AI revenue guidance.
  • He advocates long-term US equity investing and diversification across big tech.
  • The discussion also covers semiconductor/memory rebound, Korean governance reform, and investment frameworks.
  • The video marks Professor Lee's final weekly appearance on the program.
Ideas
Semiconductors and memory are rebounding.
TSMC's strong earnings and the upcoming SK hynix results indicate that semiconductors and memory are rebounding. The speaker expects the semiconductor and memory sector to rally further, especially with SK hynix's earnings release next week.
Lee Nam-woo Professor, Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies 3:19
US stocks good for long-term investing.
The US market has many fundamentally strong companies and has delivered strong long-term compounding, with the S&P 500 rising about 11-12% annualized over the past four years. He advises long-term investing in US equities with diversification rather than concentrating on a single stock.
Lee Nam-woo Professor, Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies 6:08
Big Tech capex shift risks valuations.
US Big Tech is shifting from asset-light R&D models to capital-intensive AI infrastructure models, which historically warrants a valuation penalty. The market has not yet fully discounted this, so Big Tech valuations could compress, with Alphabet potentially deserving 20-25x instead of 30x.
Lee Nam-woo Professor, Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies 9:37
Tesla faces multiple structural risks.
Tesla faces five major risks: high retail investor concentration and a very high PER (~200x), key-man risk from Elon Musk's political involvement, intensifying competition from Chinese EV makers, new autonomous driving entrants with different business models, and continued weak profitability due to EV headwinds and unprofitable autonomous driving.
Lee Nam-woo Professor, Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies 11:31
Alphabet faces valuation and regulatory risks.
Alphabet/Google faces five risks: regulatory risk as a monopoly, valuation re-rated to about 30x from 17-18x with a PEG of 1.8, ad-dependent business model vulnerable to an economic downturn, and intensifying AI competition. Apple's adoption of Gemini is a positive, but the risks remain.
Lee Nam-woo Professor, Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies 26:47
Buy TSMC on dips.
TSMC reported strong results and raised its AI revenue guidance by 10%, long-term revenue growth target to 20-25%, and capex plans. As a conservative company, these upward revisions are significant, so investors should buy TSMC on dips to build a portfolio.
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This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 15, 2026, features Vincent, Lee Nam-woo discussing SMH, 000660.KS, SPY, US Big Tech, TSLA, GOOGL, TSM. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

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