How the War in Iran Has Shuffled the Deck for Bitcoin, AI and China - Bits + Bips
Speakers
Austin Campbell — Host
— Chopping Block co-host
Chris Perkins — The Golden Hand of Coin Fund
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- Geopolitical Escalation (2026 Scenario): The US and Israel launched "Operation Epic Fury," resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader. Iran retaliated against neighbors (UAE/Saudi Arabia), but the response is viewed as militarily ineffective.
- Market Resilience: Despite the war, markets are flat and the VIX is up (viewed as a bullish signal). Oil prices surged initially, and the US now effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil supply).
- AI & Defense Shift: The DoD has shifted contracts from Anthropic (due to safety refusals) to OpenAI, signaling a "play to win" mentality in military AI adoption.
- Valuation Concerns: While energy leads, consumer staples (Walmart, Costco) are trading at unsustainable valuations (45x earnings), and Private Equity/Credit is "getting destroyed" due to mark-to-market realities.
Trade Ideas
Chris observes that despite the war, Bitcoin rebounded quickly to $70k and showed "resiliency." He notes liquidity is coming back into the markets. "War has come to crypto's doorstep" (Dubai/UAE), yet the decentralized network persisted. The geopolitical instability highlights the utility of non-sovereign assets, and the market structure is "bottoming." Long Bitcoin and Crypto-proxies (Coinbase) on resilience and liquidity inflows. Global liquidity shock or severe regulatory crackdown during wartime.
Rahm notes that the Energy ETF (XLE) is the top performer year-to-date and oil prices surged following the US/Israel strikes on Iran. The conflict has disrupted supply chains and placed the Strait of Hormuz (20% of world oil) under US control/scrutiny. While the kinetic war might be short (4-5 weeks), the energy sector is currently the market leader while other sectors falter. Long Energy as a hedge against geopolitical escalation and as a momentum trade in a leading sector. A faster-than-expected resolution to the conflict or a global recession dampening demand.
Rahm explicitly states that stocks like Walmart and Costco are trading at "45 times earnings" and that "that's not sustainable. That's going to have to give back." Investors have crowded into consumer staples as a safety trade, pushing valuations to bubble territory. As the market rotates or faces reality, these multiples must compress. Short/Avoid overvalued Consumer Staples. Continued flight to safety keeps multiples irrationally high.
Ram Ahluwalia
CEO, LuminArx Capital
Rahm states, "Look at private equity and private credit. It's getting absolutely destroyed in the markets right now... They're subject to mark-to-market. That's they live in reality land." Unlike the "story time" in AI software, private credit is facing actual economic headwinds and mark-to-market losses. This sector is decoupling from the broader tech optimism. Short Private Equity/Credit managers exposed to mark-to-market risks. Fed rate cuts or government intervention stabilizing the credit markets.
Ram Ahluwalia
CEO, LuminArx Capital
Rahm says, "Look at Palantir stock. I think that's a bubble deflating, but hey, they've got value capture." While Palantir has the government contracts (Value Capture), the valuation has detached from reality (Bubble). Even good companies make bad investments if bought at the peak of a bubble. Avoid Palantir despite the favorable defense environment due to valuation risk. The "American Dominance" narrative pushes defense tech stocks even higher regardless of fundamentals.
Austin Campbell
Founder, Zero Knowledge Group; Co-host Bits+Bips (Unchained); Adj. Prof. NYU Stern
Austin reports that after Anthropic refused to work with the DoD on certain terms, OpenAI (Sam Altman) stepped in and signed the contract to support the military. In a kinetic war (Operation Epic Fury), the US military adopts a "play to win" strategy. They will utilize the AI models that are willing to cooperate. OpenAI (backed by Microsoft) captures the government revenue and entrenched status that Anthropic forfeited on ethical grounds. Long MSFT as the proxy for OpenAI's growing dominance in the government/defense sector. Reputational blowback on OpenAI or regulatory intervention.
Up Next
This Unchained (Chopping Block) video, published March 04, 2026, features Chris Perkins, Ram Ahluwalia, Austin Campbell discussing BTC, COIN, USO, XLE, WMT, COST, BX, KKR, APO, PLTR, MSFT. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Chris Perkins, Ram Ahluwalia, Austin Campbell · Tickers: BTC, COIN, USO, XLE, WMT, COST, BX, KKR, APO, PLTR, MSFT