Ideas
Long emerging markets on weak dollar
The first weak US dollar in 25 years is returning capital from the US to emerging markets, which is positive for emerging-market inflation, rates, and asset prices.
Long Brazilian equities on external tailwind
Brazil had five positive drivers: weak dollar/EM inflows, cheap valuation with growing earnings, light domestic positioning, foreign inflows, and election/rates. Despite political noise, the setup is not binary and high real carry cushions downside.
Long NTN-B for high real carry
Brazil's fiscal situation is bad but not fiscal dominance. High real yields mean investors are well paid to wait, with long NTN-B yielding around 7.2% and real rates near 10%, far above US TIPS at about 1.8%.
Long US tech on AI innovation
US exceptionalism and the best US technology companies remain intact. US market gains are driven by technology and AI innovation, not Trump, and ex-tech US equities are flat or falling, so he continues to like holding American technology companies.
Gold hedge against fiscal and Fed risk
He holds gold because global fiscal deterioration, reduced faith in American exceptionalism, and risks to Fed independence are supportive for the metal.
Short US Treasuries on Fed governance risk
He has a lightly short position on the US yield curve due to greater risk in Fed governance and independence, which can raise term premium and yields.
Short iron ore on global scenario
He carries a short position in iron ore as part of his global macro scenario.
Short oil on global scenario
He carries a short position in crude oil as part of his global macro scenario.
Long AI semiconductor supply chain
He has long exposure to the AI hardware/semiconductor supply chain, including semiconductors and memory, as part of a broader US long-short AI portfolio.
Small short Oracle in AI basket
He holds a short position in Oracle within the US AI long-short portfolio; no detailed standalone rationale was provided.
Small short Tesla in AI basket
He holds a small short position in Tesla within the US AI long-short portfolio; no detailed standalone rationale was provided.
Long China equities on AI edge
He has a rare position in Chinese equities because of AI opportunities: abundant data, cheap energy, open-source collaborative models, hardware/robotics strength, and underrated cheap companies in Hong Kong/adrs.
Long Chinese robotics dominance theme
China already dominated drones, solar, and EVs and is far ahead in robotics; combined with cheap models and abundant energy, Chinese robotics companies have a structural deployment advantage.
Long Brazilian pharmacy retail on GLP-1
GLP-1 weight-loss pens are creating a large growth wave for pharmacy retail. Demand exceeds supply, supply is growing, and patent expirations/generics should expand volumes; large chains benefit from cold-chain logistics, scale, and image versus smaller pharmacies.
Long Raia Drogasil on GLP-1 execution
Raia Drogasil adjusted quickly to HPC/marketplace competition, restored pricing and costs, recovered profitability, and now has the GLP-1 tailwind. Although it trades around 24x P/E, 20-30% earnings growth makes the growth-adjusted multiple attractive.
Long Pague Menos turnaround and discount
Pague Menos trades at a cheaper multiple than Raia and is executing a strong turnaround, making it another levered play on pharmacy retail and GLP-1 volume.
Long fuel distributors as informality shrinks
Fuel distribution margins were near lows due to informality. Institutional improvements and enforcement are shrinking the informal market, allowing formal players such as Vibra, Ultrapar, and Raízen to gain share and margin. They trade around 10x P/E, generate cash, and can return capital.
Long Nubank on credit and growth
Nubank was rebought after improving credit models, equating Pix, expanding Mexico deposits/lending, and benefiting from private payroll loans. Low cost to serve and AI adoption support growth and profitability, with US optionality.
Long Vivara on founder-led reset
Vivara dominates formal jewelry with 20% share versus 2% for the second player. The founder's return led cost cuts and pragmatic family management; market panic created favorable asymmetry, and gold inventory gives a cost advantage.
Long Brazilian bond proxies for carry
Brazilian bond-proxy equities in infrastructure, energy, and shopping centers are resilient and pass inflation to revenue. Historically, even a basket including failures beat the Bovespa, and active selection can add alpha. The fiscal-dominance scare created attractive entry IRRs, and the TRUXT Retorno Real fund exploits this.
This Market Makers video, published January 01, 2026,
features Bruno Garcia, Wlad Ribeiro
discussing EEM, BOVA11.SA, NTN-B, XLK, GLD, US Treasury curve, Iron Ore, WTI, SMH, ORCL, TSLA, FXI, Chinese AI stocks, ROBO, Brazilian pharmacy retail, RADL3.SA, PGMN3.SA, Brazilian fuel distribution, VBBR3.SA, UGPA3.SA, RAIZ4.SA, NU, VIVA3.SA, Brazilian bond-proxy equities, TRUXT Retorno Real fund.
20 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Bruno Garcia,
Wlad Ribeiro
· Tickers:
EEM,
BOVA11.SA,
NTN-B,
XLK,
GLD,
US Treasury curve,
Iron Ore,
WTI,
SMH,
ORCL,
TSLA,
FXI,
Chinese AI stocks,
ROBO,
Brazilian pharmacy retail,
RADL3.SA,
PGMN3.SA,
Brazilian fuel distribution,
VBBR3.SA,
UGPA3.SA,
RAIZ4.SA,
NU,
VIVA3.SA,
Brazilian bond-proxy equities,
TRUXT Retorno Real fund
