The speaker explicitly stated, "the price of oil will drop like a rock as soon as a deal is done." The proposed deal involves opening the Strait of Hormuz (a critical oil chokepoint) and establishing joint control over oil flow, which would reduce geopolitical risk and potentially increase supply access. This is a direct, bearish call on the crude oil price, contingent on the successful completion of the described diplomatic agreement. The deal may not materialize. Other supply constraints or global demand factors could offset the impact of the strait opening.