Name: Canada’s Economy Is ‘Dying’ As S&P 500 Heads To 16,000, Here’s When | Jim Thorne
Uploaded: 2026-06-12T17:21:52+00:00
Duration: 2791 s

Speakers

Jim Thorne — Chief Market Strategist, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth

Summary

Jim Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus, argues that Canada's economy is in severe structural decline due to decades of neglected competitive advantage, while the US is set to outperform due to supply-side policies. He recommends buying Bitcoin and Micron on pullbacks, sees the S&P 500 reaching 16,000 by 2031, and advises avoiding Canadian stocks including Royal Bank of Canada. He also suggests gold and oil are headed for near-term weakness before a long-term buying opportunity in gold and a decline in oil to $60.

Canada's economy is in a structural recession with no growth for two years, extreme home bias, and overvalued financials.
US supply-side economics, deregulation, and AI capex will drive strong S&P 500 earnings growth to $650 by 2031 and a 16,000 target.
Bitcoin is a generational buy near $60K, supported by long-term fundamentals and potential US strategic reserve.
Micron (MU) is a strong buy on the pullback, benefiting from a memory supercycle and compute demand.
Avoid the TSX and specifically Royal Bank of Canada due to overvaluation and economic drag.
Oil will fall to $60 if Trump cuts a deal with Iran; gold will consolidate and present a buying opportunity later.

Ideas

Jim Thorne Chief Market Strategist, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth 2:20

Bitcoin generational buy at $60K opportunity

Bitcoin is at a generational buying opportunity near $60K. Short-term volatility is driven by tourist traders and internal maxi disputes, but long-term fundamentals remain highly constructive. The US is moving toward a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and the asset is at its upward-sloping 200-week moving average, providing a good entry. Bitcoin will eventually reach $150K and beyond. Should be part of every portfolio.

Jim Thorne Chief Market Strategist, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth 6:35

Buy Micron on pullback for memory supercycle

The world lacks compute, and memory is now the most critical component. A re-rating of memory stocks is underway. Micron is particularly attractive on this pullback; DRAM capacity is constrained, and the cycle will be longer than expected. Micron could earn $150 per share by 2028-29, and at a 20x multiple, the stock would be $3,000. Strong buy now.

Jim Thorne Chief Market Strategist, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth 14:38

Avoid Royal Bank of Canada overvaluation

Royal Bank of Canada is trading at an extreme 3.6 times price to tangible book, far above its historical norm and double that of Bank of America's 1.6x. This overvaluation is fueled by home bias and will need to correct as Canadian economic reality worsens. Either book value must grow or the stock must decline substantially.

Jim Thorne Chief Market Strategist, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth 31:28

S&P 500 target 16,000 by 2031

The US economy will run hot driven by supply-side economics, deregulation, and productivity gains. S&P 500 earnings will grow 15-16% annually, reaching $650 per share by 2031, supported by 100% capex deduction. With a multiple of 22-25x, the S&P 500 could reach 16,000 by 2031. The US is the place to be for growth.

Jim Thorne Chief Market Strategist, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth 33:11

Avoid TSX as Canada economy falters

Canada's economy is in structural decline with no growth for years, suffering from extreme home bias that has pushed TSX valuations to risky levels. Energy and gold prices, which supported recent TSX outperformance, are rolling over. Canadian banks are historically overvalued. When reality sets in, investors will flee the TSX. Avoid Canadian equities.

Jim Thorne Chief Market Strategist, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth 33:36

Oil falling to $60 on Iran deal

Oil is headed down to $60 as Trump cuts a deal with Iran. Supply pressures and the easing of geopolitical tensions will drive crude lower. The selloff in oil and gold signals that a deal is coming, and oil's decline will act as a drag on Canadian resource stocks.

Jim Thorne Chief Market Strategist, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth 37:43

Long US bonds as yields drop

US 10-year yields at 4.5% represent a danger zone and a line in the sand. Trump must cut a deal to avoid economic damage. Core inflation is not present, full-time job creation is negative, and central banks will eventually cut rates. Yields will fall, making long-duration Treasuries attractive.

Jim Thorne Chief Market Strategist, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth 42:58

Wait for gold pullback to buy

Gold remains a long-term bull market through the end of the decade, but parabolic moves must be sold. After the recent spike, gold will likely consolidate through summer, and then a wonderful buying opportunity will emerge. Wait for gold to settle and buy near the upward-sloping 200-week moving average.

Canada’s Economy Is ‘Dying’ As S&P 500 Heads To 16,000, Here’s When | Jim Thorne

Summary

Ideas

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