ФРС повысила ставку! Что дальше? | Инвест ГРОГ с Солодиным
Speakers
Dmitry Solodin
— Trader / Investor
Summary
Dmitry Solodin reviews the Fed's 25bp rate hike and what it means for markets. He discusses higher yields, TLT, inflation expectations, equity valuation pressure, rotation into value and banks, and negative effects on REITs, biotech, hyperscalers, and semiconductors. He also analyzes gold positioning, Bitcoin technicals, SPY options, and individual names including Oracle, Bloom Energy, APP, PayPal, and Tesla.
- Fed rate hike keeps yields biased higher and pressures long-duration bonds like TLT.
- Higher rates hurt rate-sensitive sectors such as REITs, biotech, unprofitable companies, hyperscalers, and semiconductors.
- Speaker favors rotation toward value stocks and banks as rate hikes continue.
- Gold positioning remains net long and supports a neutral-to-positive outlook.
- Bitcoin may bounce to resistance but medium-term downside below 55k is expected.
- S&P 500 risk is elevated; speaker reduced exposure and sees potential downside while SPY 7200-7300 is a key level.
- Individual stock views include caution on Meta, Oracle, PayPal, and Tesla valuation, a watch on Bloom Energy, and a positive bias on APP.
- Tesla has a possible technical breakout setup, but the stock is still viewed as fundamentally expensive.
Ideas
TLT remains technically bearish; avoid for now.
The Fed's rate hike and market pricing of further hikes keep yields biased higher. TLT's benchmark 20-year yield has not fallen and the chart remains technically bearish; if rates rise toward 4.5-4.75%, the 20-year yield could rise toward 5.8%, pressuring TLT. He already exited near 89 and does not want new exposure without a serious disinflation or yield-drop trigger.
REITs pressured by high borrowing costs.
REITs are traditionally sensitive to rates, and current high rates raise borrowing costs. Their performance has already been weak, and high rates make it hard for them to produce good returns.
Hyperscalers face rate-driven capex funding pressure.
Hyperscalers were historically rate-insensitive because they held large cash balances, but massive AI capex has exhausted cash and pushed many into debt. Further rate hikes raise borrowing costs and may constrain capex, pressuring their business and valuations.
Semiconductors pressured by hyperscaler capex constraints.
Semiconductor companies such as Nvidia and AMD depend on hyperscaler AI capex, which is increasingly debt-funded. If higher rates limit or slow hyperscaler capex, semiconductor earnings and stocks face downside.
Biotech suffers as capital costs rise.
Unprofitable companies and biotech suffer badly in rising-rate cycles because higher cost of capital compresses valuations and cheap money is no longer available. Sustained trends in unprofitable companies are unlikely while rates are high.
Meta's high-cost AI contracts threaten competitiveness.
Meta locked in AI compute/power capacity for 20 years at about $8 per million tokens while current market costs are below $3 and could fall to cents. Combined with debt funding, this threatens Meta's competitiveness and future margins/valuation.
Tesla remains fundamentally overvalued.
Tesla is no longer a premium compounder: revenue growth and margins have fallen sharply, and its EV/EBITDA around 120 is far above the normal 15-20 range. The stock is fundamentally overvalued despite possible robot/AI optionality.
Rotate to value and banks.
Rate hikes tend to trigger rotation from high-multiple growth and unprofitable stocks into cheaper value stocks and banks. Value companies generate strong free cash flow, carry low debt, and can benefit from higher rates; if the economy stays strong, earnings growth can cushion the impact.
Apple benefits from higher rates on cash.
Apple has a large cash balance and earns interest income on cash, so rising rates are positive for it, unlike debt-laden hyperscalers. This is a relative balance-sheet advantage in a higher-rate environment.
S&P 500 downside risk; reduced exposure.
The S&P 500's real earnings yield is near zero while 10-year real yields are around 2.5%, so capital may prefer bonds over equities. He is partially out of the market and sees potential downside toward 6800-7000 as rate hikes and hyperscaler problems weigh on stocks, while VIX/correlation show no stress yet.
Gold positioning supports neutral-to-positive outlook.
Gold futures positioning shows large managers still heavily net long (about 145.8k longs vs 10k shorts) and shorts near historic lows, with only modest recent long liquidation. Although positioning is not an extreme entry, it supports a neutral-to-positive outlook for gold.
Bitcoin may bounce then fall below 55k.
Bitcoin may bounce toward 90-92k resistance, but the wave structure suggests another leg down in the medium term, potentially below 55k. He does not see strong upside potential and advises not rushing into longs.
Bloom Energy volatility expansion setup.
Bloom Energy appeared on a low-expected-volatility screener, and the chart suggests volatility may expand with an upward wave C. A correction could occur first, and the 39% issuance suggests possible M&A, so fundamentals need checking, but the setup is worth watching.
Oracle debt-funded capex worries investors.
Oracle's negative report reaction is tied to large capex, lack of cash, growing debt, and equity issuance to fund infrastructure projects. Valuation is high and investors are concerned about funding needs; the chart does not yet show a clear upward move.
APP quality growth after pullback.
After a sharp pullback, APP remains a high-quality company with strong growth and elite margins, and its valuation is now more reasonable. The chart shows a distribution cluster that could eventually lead to an upward breakout, though further downside is possible.
PayPal cheap but growth too weak.
PayPal is very cheap on value metrics (P/E 10, P/B 1.3, earnings yield 10% vs market 3.8%), but revenue growth is weak at 6.3% and efficiency is declining. It is no longer the fast-growing compounder he wants, and the technical setup looks suspicious; he exited at 60.
Up Next
This Dmitry Solodin video, published September 18, 2026, features Dmitry Solodin discussing TLT, XLRE, SKYY, SMH, XBI, META, TSLA, Value stocks, KBE, AAPL, SPY, GLD, BTC, BE, ORCL, APP, PYPL. 16 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Dmitry Solodin · Tickers: TLT, XLRE, SKYY, SMH, XBI, META, TSLA, Value stocks, KBE, AAPL, SPY, GLD, BTC, BE, ORCL, APP, PYPL