Ep. 033 - 300 Data Center Bans, 3 Projects Delayed: Moratoriums Explained (Datacenter, Energy)

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 18, 2026 at 18:00  |  53:30  |  SemiAnalysis
Speakers
Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros — Substack author, SemiAnalysis
Maya Barkin — Substack author, SemiAnalysis
Reyk Knuhtsen — Substack author, SemiAnalysis

Summary

Maya Barkin and Reyk Knühtsen from SemiAnalysis's Data Center, Energy, and Industrials team join Jordan Nanos to explain data center moratoriums. They mapped over 400 local instruments and found only three projects materially delayed. The discussion covers behind-the-meter advantages, New York vs Texas regulation, local political signaling, and developer strategies. Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros adds that the US data center buildout forecast remains intact.

  • More than 300 towns, cities, and counties have enacted data center moratoriums, but most have no pipeline capacity.
  • SemiAnalysis mapped 400+ local instruments against roughly 3,500 US project entries and found only three projects materially delayed.
  • Behind-the-meter and off-grid data centers are becoming more attractive because they avoid grid interconnection risk.
  • New York's statewide moratorium pauses permits for 50 MW+ projects until July 2027, delaying about 800 MW.
  • Texas concentration grows for off-grid projects; the ERCOT audit only affects grid-queue projects.
  • Moratoriums are often cheap political signaling and may continue through elections.
  • Developers can de-annex, relocate, redesign, litigate, or buy entitled land to mitigate risk.
  • Beneficiaries of the BTM shift include on-site generation, gas midstream, turbines, and gensets.
Ideas
Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros Substack author, SemiAnalysis 12:03
Behind-the-meter data centers become more attractive.
Grid-connected sites are scarce and increasingly risky because of moratoriums and power-price pushback, while behind-the-meter/off-grid projects bring their own power, avoid grid interaction, and have many more suitable sites, especially in Texas. This makes behind-the-meter projects easier and more desirable.
Behind-the-meter data centers HIGH
Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros Substack author, SemiAnalysis 12:34
Texas data center development concentrates.
The number of viable data center sites is expanding behind the meter, and this is concentrating development in Texas because West Texas has gas, land, and easier permitting for large off-grid campuses.
Texas data center development MED
Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros Substack author, SemiAnalysis 12:51
US data center buildout remains on track.
Moratoriums are mostly local and political, affect only three material projects, and many canceled early-stage sites were speculative and never in the forecast. With behind-the-meter and off-grid options expanding site availability, the US data center buildout trajectory remains intact and the team is not worried.
US data center buildout HIGH
Maya Barkin Substack author, SemiAnalysis 32:42
New York data centers face delays.
New York's statewide moratorium pauses state environmental permits for new data centers of 50 MW or more until July 2027, touching about 1.4 GW of planned capacity and delaying roughly 800 MW by 6-10 months. This is a clear regulatory headwind for New York data center projects.
New York data centers HIGH
Reyk Knuhtsen Substack author, SemiAnalysis 34:53
TeraWulf timeline slips to 2029.
TeraWulf claims the New York moratorium causes no changes, but its project timeline has already slipped to 2029 in investor documents. The speaker is skeptical of long-dated project timelines beyond 12-18 months and sees the near-term story as delayed.
WULF MED
Maya Barkin Substack author, SemiAnalysis 51:00
Behind-the-meter shift benefits gas equipment.
If developers shift to behind-the-meter and fully islanded campuses to avoid grid interconnection and moratorium risk, the beneficiaries include behind-the-meter developers/operators with secured power, on-site generation, gas midstream, gas turbines, and gensets.
On-site power generation AMLP XLI Gensets HIGH
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This SemiAnalysis video, published September 18, 2026, features Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Maya Barkin, Reyk Knuhtsen discussing Behind-the-meter data centers, Texas data center development, US data center buildout, New York data centers, WULF, On-site power generation, AMLP, XLI, Gensets. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Maya Barkin, Reyk Knuhtsen  · Tickers: Behind-the-meter data centers, Texas data center development, US data center buildout, New York data centers, WULF, On-site power generation, AMLP, XLI, Gensets