Hong Kong's Unprecedented Five-Year Plan

Watch on YouTube ↗ | September 16, 2026 at 05:39 | 1:29:32 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Luigi Speranza — Global Head of Markets 360 and Chief Economist, BNP Paribas

Michelle Kwok — Head of Asia Real Estate Research, HSBC

David Savage — Editor, The Block

Gwen Young — Reporter, Bloomberg Billionaires

Stephen Engle — Chief North Asian Correspondent, Bloomberg

Anthony Stevens — Bloomberg Market Producer

Raymond Yeung — Chief Greater China Economist, ANZ

Kher Sheng Lee — Managing Director and Co-Head of APAC, AIMA

Colin Murphy — China Economy and Government Reporter, Bloomberg

Summary

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee is unveiling the city's first-ever five-year plan and 2026 policy address, centered on the Northern Metropolis and deeper alignment with Beijing's national strategy. HSBC's Michelle Kwok sees a multi-decade Northern Metropolis supercycle favoring regulated utilities near term and real estate as a later value play, while ANZ's Raymond Yeung and AIMA's Kher Sheng Lee emphasize execution and competitiveness. BNP Paribas' Luigi Speranza expects three Fed hikes and argues 5% is not the ceiling for 10-year Treasury yields, as markets brace for the Fed and BOJ and watch a prolonged oil risk premium ahead of a Trump-Xi summit.

Hong Kong unveils its first five-year plan, with the Northern Metropolis as the centerpiece of alignment with Beijing.
HSBC sees a roughly HK$3 trillion Northern Metropolis supercycle; regulated utilities near term, property later.
BNP Paribas expects three Fed hikes and a bearish 10-year Treasury bias; 5% is called no ceiling.
Markets brace for the Fed and BOJ while energy prices stay elevated on Iran and Red Sea disruption.
US-China summit preview features possible agriculture tariff deals and chip export-control discussions.
AI wealth creation extends to overlooked suppliers such as server-rail maker King Slide.
China tightens overseas travel rules; PBoC signals structurally lower credit growth.
Thailand's deputy prime minister is confident investment-led growth can persist.

Ideas

Luigi Speranza Global Head of Markets 360 and Chief Economist, BNP Paribas 16:00

Short Treasuries; 5% is not the ceiling.

The US economy is running around trend with a tight labor market and a domestically generated inflation problem, including AI-driven goods price pressure such as computer and equipment investment prices swinging from six decades of deflation to roughly 11% year over year. The Fed's expected three hikes today, in December and in March are aimed at preventing overheating rather than returning inflation to 2%, and a fiscal risk premium is not fully priced. With the 10-year yield near 5%, he keeps a bearish duration bias: 5% is not the ceiling, so sell rallies rather than buy dips, and use any Fed-driven consolidation as an opportunity to go short again.

Michelle Kwok Head of Asia Real Estate Research, HSBC 31:55

Near-term Northern Metropolis play: regulated utilities.

The Northern Metropolis is a unique large-scale cross-border project involving roughly HK$3 trillion of investment over the next five to six years, with about 360 billion to be redeployed, capacity for 2.5 million residents and a push to diversify Hong Kong away from property, finance and trade. Execution risk is real and hinges on enterprise occupancy, talent inflow and the university town tender, but for investors the near-term visibility lies in regulated utilities as the investment is spent; that is her first port of call for expressing the supercycle, while most other aspects are not yet an earnings event.

Michelle Kwok Head of Asia Real Estate Research, HSBC 32:02

Real estate is a later-stage value play.

Real estate is the later-dated value expression of the Northern Metropolis supercycle rather than a near-term earnings event, because the roughly 20-year project needs industry, jobs and rent formation before developers are rewarded, and private developers remain cautious about financial capability and timing. She advises keeping it on the radar and monitoring capex deployment, the university town tender and monetization, with housing oversupply resolving only if talent inflows continue.

David Savage Editor, The Block 51:04

AI trade faces macro and capex headwinds.

Going into the Fed decision, the AI trade faces a confluence of macro headwinds: higher Treasury yields with the 10-year near 5%, a level the AI boom has never faced, a firmer dollar and elevated energy prices tied to prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, Iran and Ukraine, all weighing on risk appetite and particularly on the AI trade. Within the trade, the market is also probing the capex cycle, with 2027 supply largely locked in through long-term agreements but visibility into 2028-29 unclear, making this a setup worth monitoring rather than a clean directional call.

Gwen Young Reporter, Bloomberg Billionaires 77:43

AI picks-and-shovels suppliers beyond chipmakers.

The AI infrastructure buildout is creating derivative demand for overlooked, unglamorous suppliers beyond the chipmakers. Taiwan's King Slide, originally a maker of furniture drawer slides, now supplies rail kits for heavy servers in data centers and benefits as more data centers are built, while PCB micro-drill-bit makers and data-center cybersecurity firms are similar beneficiaries. Founders and major shareholders of seven identified companies have gained roughly $62 billion since ChatGPT launched, leveraging decades of manufacturing expertise rather than pivoting. Key risks are a slowdown in AI development or a failure to keep adapting, though current demand remains strong.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published September 16, 2026, features Luigi Speranza, Michelle Kwok, David Savage, Gwen Young discussing IEF, Hong Kong regulated utilities, EWH, AIQ, 2059.TW. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Luigi Speranza, Michelle Kwok, David Savage, Gwen Young · Tickers: IEF, Hong Kong regulated utilities, EWH, AIQ, 2059.TW