Sideways-dia?! Boxed-in Nvidia: Strategy Between Concern and Hope; Software Stocks Extremely Volatile, Why Hardware Is Still Expected | Kim Ho-kyun, Team Lead, Korea Investment & Securities Myeongdong PB Center

횡보디아?! 박스권 '엔비디아', 걱정과 기대사이 전략은? 소프트웨어주의 변동성 극심, 하드웨어가 여전히 기대되는 이유 | 김호균 한국투자증권 명동PB센터 팀장 [글로벌 인터뷰]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 11, 2026 at 22:42  |  31:01  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Kim Ho-kyun — Team Lead, Myeongdong PB Center, Korea Investment & Securities

Summary

Kim Ho-kyun, team lead at Korea Investment & Securities' Myeongdong PB Center, says US markets are in an extremely volatile, directionless phase with Nvidia boxed in and tech leadership uneven. He expects a possible rotation back toward quality tech and AI hardware, favors select Big Tech names like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and TSMC, and is cautious on Microsoft. He also highlights power infrastructure, Tesla-centered physical AI, and rare-earth ETFs as diversification ideas for global and retirement asset allocation.

  • US equities are volatile and directionless, with Nvidia in a multi-month box and tech corrections deeper than the headline indices.
  • The speaker expects a possible rotation back to tech, focusing on earnings, guidance, and quality growth.
  • AI hardware is favored over AI software because replacing software with AI should increase chip and power demand.
  • Big Tech views are company-specific: Alphabet and Amazon favored, Microsoft cautious, Meta's capex seen as more productive.
  • TSMC is presented as a high-quality AI supplier with a historical investment-to-price lag.
  • ETF ideas include global AI power infrastructure, Tesla and physical AI exposure, and rare earths.
  • Pension accounts can use active ETFs for global asset allocation, but they require ongoing monitoring.
Ideas
Kim Ho-kyun Team Lead, Myeongdong PB Center, Korea Investment & Securities 2:14
Nvidia consolidating before likely upward breakout.
Nvidia has been trapped in a roughly seven-month box near its 200-day moving average. The speaker reads this as a consolidation or energy-accumulation phase after a huge prior move. Growth acceleration has slowed mainly because of the Blackwell product transition, not because revenue is declining. He sees a higher probability of an upward breakout and expects AI tech and Big Tech leadership could return.
Kim Ho-kyun Team Lead, Myeongdong PB Center, Korea Investment & Securities 5:41
US tech correction creates buying opportunity.
After capital rotated into cheaper cyclical recovery stocks, US tech has become cheaper and a rotation back into tech is likely, even if it needs time. The speaker favors selecting tech and Big Tech names with strong current and past earnings, credible guidance, and continuing growth, rather than indiscriminately buying M7.
Kim Ho-kyun Team Lead, Myeongdong PB Center, Korea Investment & Securities 11:15
AI software stocks remain pressured and volatile.
The Claude and AI-agent shock is a real threat to existing AI software companies. Alphabet's own AI push is preempting other software firms and slowing their growth. The speaker expects software stocks to remain sluggish and volatile while hardware benefits from more compute and power demand.
Kim Ho-kyun Team Lead, Myeongdong PB Center, Korea Investment & Securities 11:29
AI hardware demand grows despite software fears.
The Claude shock triggered fears that AI software would be disrupted, but the same selloff hit hardware illogically. If AI replaces software, more chips and electricity are required, so AI infrastructure investment should increase rather than decrease. Hardware demand remains strong and already rebounded after the coordinated selloff.
Kim Ho-kyun Team Lead, Myeongdong PB Center, Korea Investment & Securities 21:25
Alphabet leads M7 AI with solid uptrend.
Alphabet is the best AI operator among M7 with full-stack AI and strong AI agents. Its AI-agent power is so strong that it preempts other software firms, and as time passes its uptrend should become increasingly solid. It may not overtake Nvidia in market cap, but it should secure the number two position.
Kim Ho-kyun Team Lead, Myeongdong PB Center, Korea Investment & Securities 22:22
Amazon offers underappreciated physical AI upside.
Amazon is attractive despite market concerns over heavy capex because earnings are good. It has underappreciated physical AI through logistics centers, drones, and delivery robots, and as Anthropic's core partner and investor it should benefit from AI development.
Kim Ho-kyun Team Lead, Myeongdong PB Center, Korea Investment & Securities 22:53
Microsoft capex judged inefficient, OpenAI burdensome.
Microsoft is now a caution. The OpenAI partnership was initially a strength but has become a burden, and the market judged its capex as inefficient compared with Meta, which spent to grow advertising revenue. The speaker agrees the market's recent valuation of Microsoft has weakened.
Kim Ho-kyun Team Lead, Myeongdong PB Center, Korea Investment & Securities 23:07
Meta capex drives ad revenue growth.
Meta was positively contrasted with Microsoft: it spent heavily but converted that spending into increased advertising revenue, so the market rewarded it. The speaker uses this as evidence that Meta's AI capex is more productive than Microsoft's.
Kim Ho-kyun Team Lead, Myeongdong PB Center, Korea Investment & Securities 23:50
TSMC quality AI supplier with lagged upside.
TSMC is a high-quality, Apple-like long-term holding and the key supplier for Nvidia's AI chips. In the past, heavy capex and supply-demand noise kept its stock sideways even as investment demand was building; later the stock rallied with a lag. The speaker argues this investment-to-price lag makes TSMC attractive, and it has held up better than other semiconductors.
Kim Ho-kyun Team Lead, Myeongdong PB Center, Korea Investment & Securities 27:07
AI power infrastructure is next bottleneck.
After memory, power is the next bottleneck. The global electricity shortage is clear, so the speaker is positive on global AI power infrastructure ETFs. Asset managers are launching KODEX and TIGER products in this area.
Kim Ho-kyun Team Lead, Myeongdong PB Center, Korea Investment & Securities 27:37
Tesla leads physical AI, favor Tesla ETF.
Physical AI attention will rise. The fundamental leader is Tesla, even if recent hype centers on Atlas and Nvidia. The speaker prefers focusing on Tesla rather than a broad industry basket and favors a Tesla-heavy ETF, specifically the ACE Tesla Value Chain ETF, because broad AI ETFs are too diversified and may be valued above Tesla itself.
Kim Ho-kyun Team Lead, Myeongdong PB Center, Korea Investment & Securities 28:40
Rare earth ETF benefits from US-China tension.
Commodities are drawing attention, and rare earths are tied to the US-China hegemonic conflict. The speaker likes a global rare earth ETF from PLUS and Hanwha; it resembles the US REMX product but includes both MP Materials and Chinese rare earth companies. It offers useful sector diversification.
Up Next

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published February 11, 2026, features Kim Ho-kyun discussing NVDA, XLK, AI software, AI Hardware, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, META, TSM, AI-SECTOR, TSLA, ACE Tesla Value Chain ETF, PLUS Global Rare Earth ETF. 12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Kim Ho-kyun  · Tickers: NVDA, XLK, AI software, AI Hardware, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, META, TSM, AI-SECTOR, TSLA, ACE Tesla Value Chain ETF, PLUS Global Rare Earth ETF