The Future of North American Trade

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 11, 2026 at 22:00  |  4:31  |  Morgan Stanley
Speakers
Ariana Salvatore — US Policy & Political Strategist, Morgan Stanley

Summary

Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's head of public policy research, discusses the upcoming 2026 USMCA review. She expects a pragmatic outcome that preserves the agreement and resolves several disputes, though ambitious new chapters on AI, critical minerals, and China investment guardrails may be delayed. Market implications include a gradual benefit for the Mexican peso, medium-term USD/CAD downside, and ongoing Mexican manufacturing integration, especially autos and electronics, without full nearshoring acceleration.

  • USMCA first mandatory review is expected around mid-2026.
  • Base case preserves the agreement and resolves auto rules, labor, and digital trade disputes.
  • New strategic chapters may be delayed or handled through side agreements.
  • The 10-year escape clause keeps the agreement in force through 2036, limiting disruptive trade shock risk.
  • Mexico retains tariff-free access, supporting manufacturing but not full nearshoring acceleration.
  • The Mexican peso benefits gradually from reduced uncertainty.
  • Canada faces near-term review volatility and medium-term USD/CAD downside.
Ideas
Ariana Salvatore US Policy & Political Strategist, Morgan Stanley 2:31
Mexico stable; autos and electronics supported
The USMCA base case preserves tariff-free access and supports ongoing Mexican manufacturing integration, especially in autos and electronics, but without new strategic chapters Mexico remains stable rather than seeing full nearshoring acceleration, with near-term risks to rapid deeper integration.
EWW HIGH
Ariana Salvatore US Policy & Political Strategist, Morgan Stanley 2:31
Mexico stable; autos and electronics supported
The USMCA base case preserves tariff-free access and supports ongoing Mexican manufacturing integration, especially in autos and electronics, but without new strategic chapters Mexico remains stable rather than seeing full nearshoring acceleration, with near-term risks to rapid deeper integration.
Mexico autos and electronics HIGH
Ariana Salvatore US Policy & Political Strategist, Morgan Stanley 3:01
Peso benefits from reduced USMCA uncertainty
Reduced USMCA uncertainty benefits the Mexican peso, but the effect is likely gradual and muted near-term because there is no tangible progress on adding to the original deal.
MXN MED
Ariana Salvatore US Policy & Political Strategist, Morgan Stanley 3:12
Limited USMCA deal drives USD/CAD lower
Near-term volatility around the USMCA review is likely underpriced, but a limited agreement should eventually lead to medium-term dollar CAD downside.
USD/CAD HIGH
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This Morgan Stanley video, published February 11, 2026, features Ariana Salvatore discussing EWW, Mexico autos and electronics, MXN, USD/CAD. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ariana Salvatore  · Tickers: EWW, Mexico autos and electronics, MXN, USD/CAD