Oil and Treasury Yields Both Under Peak Pressure… Why Song Jae-kyung Is Wary of Late September | Hong Seon-ae, Song Jae-kyung, CEO of Dimension Investment Advisory

Summary

Song Jae-kyung, CEO of Dimension Investment Advisory, tells Hong Seon-ae that markets face a volatile late September as oil stays high, US 10-year yields press toward 5%, and fiscal debt risks keep inflation and rates elevated. He expects structural dollar weakness and recommends a value/dividend tilt over growth and momentum, including Korean banks, staples, and low-valuation/high-dividend names. He also sees Samsung Electronics and SK hynix buybacks cushioning downside, while cautioning that the Astra-driven AI memory trade may be mostly a crowded-pair unwind.

• Oil is expected to stay elevated because of Middle East stalemate and Iran's leverage over key routes.
• US fiscal debt and deficits keep long-duration Treasuries vulnerable and point to financial repression or inflation.
• The speaker expects structural dollar weakness and Korean won strength.
• He favors Korean value and dividend stocks, including banks and consumer staples, over growth and momentum.
• Samsung Electronics and SK hynix buybacks are seen as downside support.
• The Astra AI catalyst may be mostly an excuse to unwind the crowded long-memory/short-software trade.
• September seasonality and Fed/BOJ event risk warrant caution.