Nvidia and Samsung PER Decline: Buying Opportunity or Warning? | Park Se-ik, Executive Director, Chesley Investment Advisory [What's the Morning Newspaper / Friday, September 11, 2026]

엔비디아·삼성 PER 하락, 저가 매수기회냐 경고냐ㅣ체슬리투자자문 박세익 전무 [워매신박 / 26.09.11.금]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 11, 2026 at 07:46  |  1:08:04  |  Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)
Speakers
Park Se-ik — CEO, ex-Chief Strategist

Summary

Park Se-ik reviews market news and argues that falling forward PERs for Nvidia, Samsung Electronics, and SK hynix are not automatically a buy signal, since EPS growth may be validating old expectations or masking cyclical risk. He distinguishes resilient HBM pricing from weak commodity memory, discusses Samsung's HBM and foundry progress, and comments on buybacks, bank deposit flows, Chinese battery capacity controls, and the danger of leveraged ETFs. The episode also covers AI safety warnings, publishing-market manipulation, and investor psychology.

  • AI safety researchers warn of existential risk and call for regulation.
  • Nvidia, Samsung Electronics, and SK hynix forward PERs have fallen as EPS grows faster than prices.
  • Park Se-ik sees the memory cycle as split between firm HBM and weak commodity DRAM.
  • Samsung Electronics is highlighted for potential HBM4 and foundry recovery.
  • Bank term-deposit rates are rising and drawing money from stocks to deposits.
  • China is curbing new battery capacity, which may benefit Korean battery makers.
  • The episode warns against 2x/3x leveraged ETFs.
  • The discussion also includes AI, publishing, and investor psychology.
Ideas
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 36:24
Low PER needs earnings validation.
Forward PERs for Nvidia, Samsung Electronics, and SK hynix have fallen because EPS is growing faster than share prices, not simply because the stocks are weak. The speaker says a low PER is not automatically a buy signal: it may mean past expectations are being validated by real earnings, or it may reflect fear that cyclical earnings will fall. He sees the outcome as roughly half cyclical and half structural, and says the key over the next year is whether forward earnings estimates keep rising and are confirmed by actual results.
NVDA 000660.KS MED
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 36:24
Low PER needs earnings validation.
Samsung Electronics is approaching a dual rebound in HBM and foundry. HBM4 mass production and improving 2nm yields could lift HBM market share toward 40% by the fourth quarter, while 4nm yield above 80% and 2nm GAA yield above 70% improve foundry competitiveness and could drive a foundry profit turnaround from the third quarter. Samsung is described as the only company with a turnkey solution spanning memory, foundry, and packaging, and custom HBM could support further price increases. The speaker says Samsung looks technically ready to regain its past prominence.
005930.KS MED
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 42:08
HBM firm, commodity DRAM weak.
The memory cycle is bifurcating. General-purpose and legacy memory remains highly cyclical, and the speaker expects its price to fall sharply around next year, potentially by half versus current levels, because previous memory booms were followed by price declines. HBM pricing is much more resilient and is not weakening like commodity memory. Over the next two to three years he expects memory earnings to show intermediate stability and volatility rather than either pure structural growth or a normal downcycle.
DRAM MED
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 42:08
HBM firm, commodity DRAM weak.
The memory cycle is bifurcating. General-purpose and legacy memory remains highly cyclical, and the speaker expects its price to fall sharply around next year, potentially by half versus current levels, because previous memory booms were followed by price declines. HBM pricing is much more resilient and is not weakening like commodity memory. Over the next two to three years he expects memory earnings to show intermediate stability and volatility rather than either pure structural growth or a normal downcycle.
HBM MED
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 46:19
Buy Korean equities on weakness.
The speaker disagrees with the shift from stocks into bank deposits. When equities have fallen sharply, it is a bargain-sale period and investors should increase equity exposure, not move back to banks; cash should be raised when markets are overheated. He also expects a stock-picking market to unfold from October and advised betting on stocks rather than trying to recover losses through gambling or leverage.
EWY MED
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 54:01
Avoid 2x/3x leveraged ETFs.
Two-times and three-times leveraged products are like gambling or borrowing to bet. Over repeated use they converge toward losses, and investors who lose try to recover through more leverage, falling deeper. The speaker argues these products should be restricted and should be avoided.
Leveraged ETFs HIGH
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 67:21
China curb helps Korean battery makers.
China is suspending approvals for new EV and ESS battery projects and will review utilization rates so that only efficient producers can expand, responding to severe overcapacity and price wars. The speaker believes the intervention was prompted by the risk that US restrictions on Chinese batteries could leave China's battery and materials industry heavily oversupplied. Reduced Chinese capacity expansion and consolidation should be positive for Korean battery makers.
Korean battery makers MED
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This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published September 11, 2026, features Park Se-ik discussing NVDA, 000660.KS, 005930.KS, DRAM, HBM, EWY, Leveraged ETFs, Korean battery makers. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Park Se-ik  · Tickers: NVDA, 000660.KS, 005930.KS, DRAM, HBM, EWY, Leveraged ETFs, Korean battery makers