November PPI 0.2% vs. 0.3% estimate

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 14, 2026 at 14:01  |  5:21  |  CNBC
Speakers
Rick Santelli — On-Air Editor, CNBC Business News
Joe Kernen — Co-Anchor, Squawk Box

Summary

CNBC's Rick Santelli reviews November PPI, retail sales, and current account data on Squawk Box. PPI headline matched estimates but year-over-year core and ex-trade measures were hotter than expected, while retail sales were strong. The 10-year Treasury yield showed little immediate reaction near 4.16%, but Santelli expects the warmer data to eventually push it to test 4.20%. Joe Kernen and Santelli agree the data make additional Fed rate cuts this year unlikely.

  • November PPI rose 0.2% m/m, in line with estimates.
  • Year-over-year PPI final demand and core were 3.0%, hotter than expected.
  • PPI ex-food/energy/trade rose 3.5%, the highest since March/February.
  • November retail sales rose 0.6% headline, with core measures also strong.
  • The current account deficit was $249 billion, below the record but still large.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.16% after the data.
  • Santelli expects the 10-year yield to test 4.20%, a level not closed above in over four and a half months.
  • Joe Kernen and Rick Santelli said the data make more Fed rate cuts this year unlikely.
Ideas
Rick Santelli On-Air Editor, CNBC Business News 3:38
Hot data may push 10-year yield up.
November PPI year-over-year readings were hotter than expected, especially core and ex-food/energy/trade inflation, and retail sales were also strong. Rick Santelli says these data have not moved the 10-year Treasury yet, but he expects the warmer numbers to eventually push the 10-year yield to test 4.20%, a level it has not closed above in over four and a half months, with long-dated Treasuries having traded in a tight range around 4.16%.
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This CNBC video, published January 14, 2026, features Rick Santelli discussing US10Y. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Rick Santelli  · Tickers: US10Y